Company coverage / YAL.ASX Valuation date 19 Oct 2026
YA

Yancoal Australia Limited

YAL.AX · Australia · 6 operating models

Last close A$5.95
Market cap US$5,396m
Realised US$133/t
Producer
Valuation case 2026-10-19
Market cap01
US$5,396m

US$4.0871 × 1,320.2m diluted shares

2026E FCF yield02
13.4%

Coverage average —

Company P / NAV Market cap ÷ equity NAV: project NPV less corporate G&A and non-debt claims, plus cash less debt, on today's shares.03
0.66×

Risked NAV · US$8,129m

Asset P / NAV 0.69× Enterprise value ÷ attributable project NPV. Excludes corporate G&A, cash, debt and financing, so it compares across peers.

Includes US$193m deduction for non-debt claims.

Unrisked 0.66×

NAV / share04
US$6.16

Risked NAV / diluted share

Unrisked US$6.16 / share

2026E EV / EBITDA05
3.15×

Enterprise value US$6,202m

Accounting EBITDA US$1,969m

EV / reserve t06
US$8.4/t

737 Mt attributable saleable reserves

Model notes
Valuation & risk
Current share priceUS$4.09
Risked NAV / shareUS$6.16
Unrisked NAV / shareUS$6.16
Risk charge / shareUS$0
NAV retained after risk 100%
US$0m risk charge
Risked NAV US$8,129m Risk charge US$0m
Market-implied rate14%Spot EV reconciled to model NAV
Unrisked DCFUS$8,129mBase discount rate
Risked DCFUS$8,129mCountry + permitting in rate
Risk costUS$0m0% of unrisked NAV

Investment case

Spot case
01

Valuation gap

The market is pricing the company at 0.66× risked NAV, with +50.7% to the modeled per-share value.

US$6.16
02

Portfolio concentration

Moolarben Coal Complex is the largest modeled value driver at 25.6% of positive project NAV.

25.6%
03

Risk cost

Jurisdiction, permitting and project risk reduce unrisked value by US$0m before the equity bridge.

0%

Price versus modeled value

Market
US$4.09
US$0 US$14.61
Current share priceUS$4.09
Risked NAV / shareUS$6.16
Unrisked NAV / shareUS$6.16
Risk charge / share US$0

Production and sustaining FCF

Sustaining free cash flow after tax and production, both at the company's ownership share.

First positive2026
Peak modeledUS$986m
$0
US$725m
2026 41 Mt
US$795m
2027 43 Mt
US$838m
2028 43 Mt
US$862m
2029 43 Mt
US$889m
2030 43 Mt
−US$279m
2031 43 Mt
US$986m
2032 42 Mt
US$743m
2033 31 Mt
US$492m
2034 23 Mt

43 Mt peak attributable production

13.4% 2026E FCF yield

US$613m net debt entering the model

Cash flow statement

Attributable to Yancoal Australia Limited shareholders. Each mine is modeled at 100%, including royalties and taxes, then included at the company's ownership share, so minority and government interests are already excluded.

10 years Risked basis
Spot scenario
2026–2035
USD millions, except percentages and per-unit dataFY26202720282029203020312032203320342035
41.343.343.343.343.343.342.430.92323
US$5,481mUS$5,870mUS$5,870mUS$5,870mUS$5,870mUS$5,870mUS$5,715mUS$4,264mUS$3,288mUS$3,288m
US$2,773mUS$2,975mUS$2,975mUS$2,975mUS$2,975mUS$2,975mUS$2,920mUS$2,179mUS$1,667mUS$1,667m
US$624mUS$683mUS$683mUS$683mUS$683mUS$683mUS$668mUS$516mUS$413mUS$413m
AISC (US$/t)
9597.797.797.797.797.797.8100.7104.5104.5
G&A
US$115mUS$115mUS$115mUS$115mUS$115mUS$115mUS$115mUS$115mUS$115mUS$115m
US$1,969mUS$2,097mUS$2,097mUS$2,097mUS$2,097mUS$2,097mUS$2,012mUS$1,453mUS$1,093mUS$1,093m
Depreciation & depletion
US$50mUS$109mUS$177mUS$257mUS$356mUS$490mUS$669mUS$493mUS$224mUS$265m
US$1,919mUS$1,987mUS$1,920mUS$1,840mUS$1,741mUS$1,607mUS$1,343mUS$960mUS$868mUS$827m
Interest expense
US$75mUS$74mUS$72mUS$72mUS$72mUS$72mUS$0mUS$0mUS$0mUS$0m
US$1,845mUS$1,914mUS$1,848mUS$1,768mUS$1,669mUS$1,534mUS$1,343mUS$960mUS$868mUS$827m
US$610mUS$631mUS$611mUS$587mUS$557mUS$517mUS$438mUS$323mUS$295mUS$283m
US$1,234mUS$1,283mUS$1,237mUS$1,181mUS$1,112mUS$1,018mUS$906mUS$638mUS$573mUS$544m
US$533mUS$573mUS$573mUS$573mUS$573mUS$573mUS$562mUS$420mUS$322mUS$322m
Growth capex
US$0mUS$0mUS$0mUS$0mUS$0mUS$0mUS$0mUS$0mUS$0mUS$0m
US$725mUS$795mUS$838mUS$862mUS$889m−US$279mUS$986mUS$743mUS$492mUS$505m
13.4%14.7%15.5%16%16.5%-5.2%18.3%13.8%9.1%9.4%
US$303mUS$746mUS$736mUS$707mUS$681m−US$200mUS$661mUS$465mUS$288mUS$276m
Cash
US$927mUS$1,701mUS$2,539mUS$3,401mUS$4,289mUS$2,810mUS$3,797mUS$4,540mUS$5,033mUS$5,538m
EV
US$5,701mUS$4,906mUS$4,068mUS$3,207mUS$2,318mUS$2,597mUS$1,611mUS$867mUS$375m−US$130m
Yield denominators: market cap US$5,396m, EV = market cap plus US$613m net debt plus US$193m non-debt claims. Asset level rows are model mine-plan values and may not sum exactly to the consolidated line. Tax shield rows are reference-only breakdowns already reflected in cash taxes, not additional cash inflows. Changes in receivables, inventory and payables are not separately modeled in this waterfall.
Spending details
G&A · annual US$m115.4
Exploration · annual US$m0
Of which drilling · annual US$m0
All-in drilling cost · US$/m—

All-in cost per metre needs a disclosed cost or matching spend and metres for the same program and period.

NAV by asset

US$8,935m total

Mines, 2026 attributable

Metric tonnes; US$/t. Cash cost includes rail and port where reported FOB.

MineProductOwnSaleable MtCash costRoyaltySustainingMarginReserves MtLife toNPV US$m
Moolarben Coal ComplexHigh-ash thermal product mix priced primarily against API599%18.8$64$13$12$33141.020332,289
Kestrel Coal Mine~80% premium hard coking coal (low ash, high fluidity) and ~20% high-CV thermal coal80%2.8$103$31$20$45164.020501,687
Mount Thorley WarkworthLow-ash thermal and semi-soft coking coal84%8.7$64$13$12$31145.020391,575
Hunter Valley OperationsThermal and semi-soft metallurgical coal51%7.3$64$13$12$31555.020421,488
Yarrabee Coal MinePredominantly ultra-low-volatility PCI plus thermal coal100%2.1$64$27$12$8352.020501,444
Ashton Coal MineSemi-soft coking and thermal coal from the RUMEx reserve area100%1.6$64$18$12$8710.02032452
Total41.3$67$13$388,935

Benchmark to realised price, 2026

Spot case · US$ per metric tonne.

MineBenchmarkIndexRealisedRealised %Quality / basis
Moolarben Coal ComplexNEWC 5,500$112$123110%5,500 kcal/kg NAR · 22.8% ash · Group thermal/API5 history 2024-1H26 (low end) is the base; market scenarios use price_benchmark x realisation_ratio.
Kestrel Coal MinePLV HCC$271$20074%6.5% ash · Blended product realisation against PLV HCC; the ~20% thermal tail is carried inside the blended ratio.
Mount Thorley WarkworthgC NEWC$150$12080%13.4% ash · Long-run group thermal/GCNewc relativity is used because mine-level product realizations are undisclosed; market scenarios use price_benchmark x realisation_ratio.
Hunter Valley OperationsgC NEWC$150$12080%12.9% ash · Long-run group thermal/GCNewc relativity is used because mine-level product realizations are undisclosed; market scenarios use price_benchmark x realisation_ratio.
Yarrabee Coal MineLV PCI$191$18798%10.5% ash · 9.0% VM · Long-run group met/LV PCI relativity is the base (1H26 is the downside); market scenarios use price_benchmark x realisation_ratio.
Ashton Coal MineSSCC$162$181112%9.5% ash · Long-run group met/semi-soft relativity is the base (1H26 is the downside); market scenarios use price_benchmark x realisation_ratio.
Company$143$13393%

Production

Spot case

Attributable production by mine

Spot case

AISC by mine

Life-of-mine average · excludes corporate G&A

6 covered assets

Attributable economics on the spot case.

Project NAV US$8,935m
01
Moolarben Coal Complex Australia · Production · 98.8% owned
→
Attr. NAVUS$2,289m
NAV share25.6%
AISC 90 US$/t
02
Kestrel Coal Australia · Production · 80% owned
→
Attr. NAVUS$1,687m
NAV share18.9%
AISC 154 US$/t
03
Mount Thorley Warkworth Australia · Production · 83.6% owned
→
Attr. NAVUS$1,575m
NAV share17.6%
AISC 90 US$/t
04
Hunter Valley Operations Australia · Production · 51% owned
→
Attr. NAVUS$1,488m
NAV share16.7%
AISC 90 US$/t
05
Yarrabee Coal Australia · Production · 100% owned
→
Attr. NAVUS$1,444m
NAV share16.2%
AISC 104 US$/t
06
Ashton Coal Australia · Production · 100% owned
→
Attr. NAVUS$452m
NAV share5.1%
AISC 94 US$/t