Company coverage / BRL.ASX Valuation date 16 Oct 2026
BR

Bathurst Resources Limited

BRL.AX · New Zealand · 5 operating models

Reference price A$0.53
Market cap US$87m
Realised US$136/t
Producer
Valuation case 2026-10-16
Market cap01
US$87m

US$0.3585 × 241.9m diluted shares

2026E FCF yield02
27.5%

Coverage average 4.4%

Company P / NAV Market cap ÷ equity NAV: project NPV less corporate G&A and non-debt claims, plus cash less debt, on today's shares.03
0.16×

Risked NAV · US$552m

Asset P / NAV 0.07× Enterprise value ÷ attributable project NPV. Excludes corporate G&A, cash, debt and financing, so it compares across peers.

Includes US$29m deduction for non-debt claims.

Unrisked 0.14×

NAV / share04
US$2.28

Risked NAV / diluted share

Unrisked US$2.58 / share

2026E EV / EBITDA05
0.74×

Enterprise value US$33m

Accounting EBITDA US$45m

EV / reserve t06
US$1.1/t

30 Mt attributable saleable reserves

Model notes
Valuation & risk
Current share priceUS$0.36
Risked NAV / shareUS$2.28
Unrisked NAV / shareUS$2.58
Risk charge / shareUS$0.3
NAV retained after risk 88.4%
US$73m risk charge
Risked NAV US$552m Risk charge US$73m
Market-implied rate40.8%Spot EV reconciled to model NAV
Unrisked DCFUS$624mBase discount rate
Risked DCFUS$552mCountry + permitting in rate
Risk costUS$73m12.7% of unrisked NAV

Investment case

Spot case
01

Valuation gap

The market is pricing the company at 0.16× risked NAV, with +536.2% to the modeled per-share value.

US$2.28
02

Portfolio concentration

Tenas is the largest modeled value driver at 54.1% of positive project NAV.

54.1%
03

Risk cost

Jurisdiction, permitting and project risk reduce unrisked value by US$73m before the equity bridge.

12.7%

Price versus modeled value

Market
US$0.36
US$0 US$5.08
Current share priceUS$0.36
Risked NAV / shareUS$2.28
Unrisked NAV / shareUS$2.58
Risk charge / share US$0.3

Production and sustaining FCF

Sustaining free cash flow after tax and production, both at the company's ownership share.

First positive2026
Peak modeledUS$84m
$0
US$24m
2026 1 Mt
US$25m
2027 1 Mt
US$17m
2028 1 Mt
US$26m
2029 1 Mt
US$84m
2030 2 Mt
US$82m
2031 2 Mt
US$77m
2032 2 Mt
US$74m
2033 2 Mt
US$73m
2034 2 Mt

2 Mt peak attributable production

27.5% 2026E FCF yield

US$82m net cash entering the model

Cash flow statement

Attributable to Bathurst Resources Limited shareholders. Each mine is modeled at 100%, including royalties and taxes, then included at the company's ownership share, so minority and government interests are already excluded.

10 years Risked basis
Spot scenario
2026–2035
USD millions, except percentages and per-unit dataFY26202720282029203020312032203320342035
1.11.10.60.91.61.61.61.61.61.6
US$148mUS$148mUS$122mUS$197mUS$330mUS$330mUS$330mUS$330mUS$330mUS$330m
US$93mUS$93mUS$79mUS$132mUS$189mUS$189mUS$189mUS$189mUS$189mUS$189m
——US$4mUS$10mUS$14mUS$14mUS$14mUS$14mUS$14mUS$14m
AISC (US$/t)
91.391.4140.9168.1130.4130.3130.3130.3130.2130.2
G&A
US$10mUS$10mUS$10mUS$10mUS$10mUS$10mUS$10mUS$10mUS$10mUS$10m
US$45mUS$45mUS$29mUS$45mUS$117mUS$117mUS$117mUS$117mUS$117mUS$117m
Depreciation & depletion
US$3mUS$8mUS$6mUS$6mUS$13mUS$14mUS$15mUS$16mUS$17mUS$18m
US$42mUS$37mUS$23mUS$38mUS$104mUS$103mUS$102mUS$102mUS$101mUS$100m
Interest expense
US$0mUS$0mUS$0mUS$0mUS$0mUS$0mUS$0mUS$0mUS$0mUS$0m
US$42mUS$37mUS$23mUS$38mUS$104mUS$103mUS$102mUS$102mUS$101mUS$100m
US$15mUS$13mUS$9mUS$14mUS$32mUS$32mUS$35mUS$37mUS$37mUS$36m
US$28mUS$24mUS$14mUS$25mUS$72mUS$71mUS$67mUS$64mUS$64mUS$63m
US$6mUS$6mUS$4mUS$6mUS$9mUS$9mUS$9mUS$9mUS$9mUS$9m
US$0mUS$68mUS$69mUS$69mUS$0mUS$0mUS$0mUS$0mUS$0mUS$0m
US$24mUS$25mUS$17mUS$26mUS$84mUS$82mUS$77mUS$74mUS$73mUS$73m
27.5%28.5%20%29.8%96.3%94.1%88.9%85.1%84.4%84%
US$10mUS$23mUS$15mUS$20mUS$61mUS$55mUS$48mUS$42mUS$39mUS$35m
Cash
US$92mUS$49m−US$3m−US$47mUS$37mUS$118mUS$195mUS$269mUS$342mUS$415m
EV
−US$5mUS$38mUS$90mUS$134mUS$50m−US$32m−US$109m−US$182m−US$256m−US$329m
Yield denominators: market cap US$87m, EV = market cap less US$82m net cash plus US$29m non-debt claims. Asset level rows are model mine-plan values and may not sum exactly to the consolidated line. Tax shield rows are reference-only breakdowns already reflected in cash taxes, not additional cash inflows. Changes in receivables, inventory and payables are not separately modeled in this waterfall.
Spending details
G&A · annual US$m9.89
Exploration · annual US$m0
Of which drilling · annual US$m0
All-in drilling cost · US$/m—

All-in cost per metre needs a disclosed cost or matching spend and metres for the same program and period.

NAV by asset

US$498m total

Mines, 2026 attributable

Metric tonnes; US$/t. Cash cost includes rail and port where reported FOB.

MineProductOwnSaleable MtCash costRoyaltySustainingMarginReserves MtLife toNPV US$m
Tenas ProjectMid-volatile semi-soft coking coal, 9.5% ash100%—————16.62051270
Buller (Escarpment Extension and Deep Creek)Whareatea hard and semi-hard coking coal (WHCC, WSHCC) and Deep Creek PHCC100%—————9.92041148
Stockton MineSemi-hard and semi-soft coking coal blends (Alpine, PHCC, Granity, SSCC), low ash, high sulphur65%0.7$98$0$6$572.5202846
Mt Frederick South (BT Mining)Upper Waimangaroa coking coal blended into Stockton products (low ash, 1.8% sulphur)65%—————1.9203724
North Island Domestic (Rotowaro and Maramarua)Sub-bituminous thermal coal (about 22-24 MJ/kg) for Huntly power station and NZ Steel Glenbrook65%0.4$66$0$6$251.3202710
Total1.1$86$6$45498

Benchmark to realised price, 2026

Spot case · US$ per metric tonne.

MineBenchmarkIndexRealisedRealised %Quality / basis
Stockton MinePLV HCC$271$16059%4.5% ash · 3.30% S · 34.6% VM · FY26 realisation relative to PLV, less the FY27 product-mix headwind
North Island Domestic (Rotowaro and Maramarua)——$97—6.2% ash · 0.30% S · 37.3% VM · FY26 contract realisation (NZ$)
Company$271$13659%

Production

Spot case

Attributable production by mine

Spot case

AISC by mine

Life-of-mine average · excludes corporate G&A

5 covered assets

Attributable economics on the spot case.

Project NAV US$498m
01
Tenas Canada · FS · 100% owned
→
Attr. NAVUS$270m
NAV share54.1%
AISC 86 US$/t
02
Buller (escarpment Extension And Deep Creek) New Zealand · PFS · 100% owned
→
Attr. NAVUS$148m
NAV share29.8%
AISC 173 US$/t
03
Stockton New Zealand · Production · 65% owned
→
Attr. NAVUS$46m
NAV share9.3%
AISC 103 US$/t
04
Mt Frederick South (BT Mining) New Zealand · PFS · 65% owned
→
Attr. NAVUS$24m
NAV share4.8%
AISC 136 US$/t
05
North Island Domestic (rotowaro And Maramarua) New Zealand · Production · 65% owned
→
Attr. NAVUS$10m
NAV share2%
AISC 72 US$/t