Coal coverage
10 companies · spot · priced 2026-10-19
Valuation vs. unit margin
Bubble size scales with market cap.
Not charted, P/NAV N/A: CRN.ASX.
Unit costs, 2026
Cost per saleable tonne; the black mark is the realised price.
Margin, 2026
Realised price less cash cost, royalty and sustaining capex.
NAV/share sensitivity to coal prices
Each step moves all of a company's thermal or met prices by the same percentage, with the other coal type held at spot.
Thermal coal, gC NEWC US$/t
Not charted, NAV moves less than 5% across these prices: BRL.ASX.
Metallurgical coal, PLV HCC US$/t
Not charted, above 1,000% of the share price: BRL.ASX, CRN.ASX. See Values.
Values
| Company | US$105 (−30%) | US$127 (−15%) | US$150 (spot) | US$172 (+15%) | US$194 (+30%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BRL.ASX | A$3.10 585% | A$3.13 591% | A$3.17 598% | A$3.20 604% | A$3.24 610% |
| BTU | US$12.90 45% | US$36.49 126% | US$59.25 205% | US$80.61 279% | US$101.10 350% |
| CNR | US$16.42 18% | US$77.42 86% | US$131.95 146% | US$182.61 202% | US$232.55 257% |
| NHC.ASX | A$0.40 8% | A$2.37 46% | A$4.31 83% | A$6.24 120% | A$8.16 157% |
| TGA.JSE | −US$7.38 −87% | US$3.96 47% | US$13.13 156% | US$22.28 264% | US$31.43 372% |
| WHC.ASX | A$4.02 53% | A$8.29 110% | A$12.21 162% | A$16.13 214% | A$20.05 266% |
| YAL.ASX | A$2.35 39% | A$5.50 93% | A$8.55 144% | A$11.58 195% | A$14.59 245% |
| Company | US$190 (−30%) | US$230 (−15%) | US$271 (spot) | US$312 (+15%) | US$352 (+30%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BRL.ASX | A$0.19 36% | A$1.75 330% | A$3.17 598% | A$4.55 859% | A$5.93 1119% |
| BTU | US$33.36 116% | US$47.17 164% | US$59.25 205% | US$71.23 247% | US$82.94 287% |
| CNR | US$58.57 65% | US$96.58 107% | US$131.95 146% | US$166.47 184% | US$200.65 222% |
| CRN.ASX | −A$4.89 −3154% | −A$2.30 −1486% | A$0.00 1% | A$1.85 1193% | A$3.45 2229% |
| HCC | US$9.97 11% | US$58.86 65% | US$101.93 113% | US$142.74 159% | US$182.68 203% |
| SMR.ASX | −A$1.42 −52% | A$1.11 41% | A$3.12 115% | A$5.07 187% | A$6.78 250% |
| WHC.ASX | A$4.48 59% | A$8.56 114% | A$12.21 162% | A$15.66 208% | A$18.78 249% |
| YAL.ASX | A$5.64 95% | A$7.17 121% | A$8.55 144% | A$9.87 166% | A$11.07 186% |
Company universe
Spot case (PLV HCC US$271.00 · LV PCI US$190.60 · SSCC US$162.00 · gC NEWC US$149.50 · API4 RB US$128.30 · NEWC 5,500 US$111.50)
| Valuation | Production | Thermal, US$/t | Met, US$/t | Balance sheet | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BRL.ASX → Bathurst Resources | 0.16× A$0.53 vs A$3.17 | US$87m | US$552m | 0.7× | 27.5% | 1.1 | 38% | 62% | 59% | $97 | $66 | $25 | $160 | $98 | $57 | US$82m | 0.0% |
| BTU → Peabody Energy | 0.49× US$28.85 vs US$59.25 | US$3.67bn | US$7.54bn | 4.3× | 8.8% | 100.6 | 92% | 11% | 80% | $26 | $21 | $4 | $204 | $135 | $22 | US$259m | 5.3% |
| WHC.ASX → Whitehaven Coal | 0.61× A$7.54 vs A$12.43 | US$4.28bn | US$7.06bn | 4.4× | 2.8% | 25.9 | 52% | 100% | 84% | $153 | $92 | $35 | $198 | $110 | $47 | −US$1.44bn | 2.7% |
| TGA.JSE → Thungela Resources | 0.64× US$8.44 vs US$13.13 | US$1.07bn | US$1.67bn | 1.7× | 19.5% | 17.4 | 100% | 100% | 86% | $115 | $83 | $21 | — | — | — | US$365m | 5.4% |
| YAL.ASX → Yancoal Australia | 0.66× A$5.95 vs A$8.55 | US$5.4bn | US$8.13bn | 3.1× | 13.4% | 41.3 | 84% | 100% | 93% | $122 | $64 | $32 | $191 | $81 | $67 | −US$613m | 3.2% |
| CNR → Core Natural Resources | 0.68× US$90.35 vs US$131.95 | US$4.51bn | US$6.58bn | 4.8× | 12.0% | 78.1 | 89% | 11% | 57% | $35 | $27 | $5 | $155 | $98 | $44 | US$32m | 7.9% |
| SMR.ASX → Stanmore Resources | 0.83× A$2.71 vs A$3.12 | US$1.69bn | US$2.03bn | 4.7× | 7.5% | 13.1 | 0% | 100% | 96% | — | — | — | $184 | $122 | $29 | −US$78m | 4.7% |
| HCC → Warrior Met Coal | 0.88× US$89.94 vs US$101.93 | US$4.76bn | US$5.39bn | 6.5× | 11.8% | 12.2 | 0% | 100% | 65% | — | — | — | $176 | $100 | $55 | US$156m | 0.4% |
| NHC.ASX → New Hope | 1.18× A$5.19 vs A$4.31 | US$3.11bn | US$2.64bn | 5.1× | 5.3% | 12.7 | 100% | 100% | 82% | $122 | $63 | $35 | — | — | — | US$51m | 10.0% |
| CRN.ASX → Coronado | N/A A$0.16 vs A$0.00 | US$177m | US$2m | 5.5× | -75.5% | 12.4 | 0% | 100% | 71% | — | — | — | $192 | $150 | $13 | −US$606m | 0.0% |
P/NAV, EV/EBITDA, FCF yield, margins and Div + buyback show the top quartile of each column in green and the bottom quartile in red. Thermal reads navy above 60% and orange (met) below 40%; Seaborne reads teal above 60% and light blue (domestic) below 40%. P/NAV shows N/A when NAV is negative or the multiple is above 4×. NAV/share converted at model FX. Thermal and Seaborne are shares of saleable tonnes: a mine counts as met or thermal by the index it sells against, and as seaborne when it is priced off one. Margin is realised price less cash cost, royalty and sustaining capex. Realised / bench. is shown where a mine sells against a published index; contract-priced books show —. Div + buyback is dividend plus buyback yield on market cap. Model outputs only, not investment advice.
2027 EBITDA sensitivity to seaborne prices
EBITDA after royalties when every index-linked tonne moves by the same US$/t. Contract-priced tonnes stay at spot.
Multiple of spot case
EBITDA per US$10/t, % of market cap
| 2027, US$M | Revenue | EBITDA | EBITDA at −US$25/t | Seaborne share of EBITDA |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BRL.ASX | 148 | 45 | 28 | 77% |
| BTU | 4,866 | 1,162 | 827 | 87% |
| CNR | 3,744 | 999 | 784 | 50% |
| CRN.ASX | 2,397 | 283 | 28 | 100% |
| HCC | 2,158 | 708 | 423 | 100% |
| NHC.ASX | 1,620 | 648 | 340 | 100% |
| SMR.ASX | 2,337 | 369 | 143 | 100% |
| TGA.JSE | 1,987 | 417 | 2 | 100% |
| WHC.ASX | 4,531 | 1,291 | 772 | 100% |
| YAL.ASX | 5,870 | 2,097 | 1,163 | 100% |