Company coverage / BTU Valuation date 16 Oct 2026
BT

Peabody Energy Corporation

BTU · USA · 8 operating models · 2 valuation-only assets

Reference price US$28.85
Market cap US$3,673m
Realised US$37/t
Producer
Valuation case 2026-10-16
Market cap01
US$3,673m

US$28.85 × 127.3m diluted shares

2026E FCF yield02
8.8%

Coverage average 4.4%

Company P / NAV Market cap ÷ equity NAV: project NPV less corporate G&A and non-debt claims, plus cash less debt, on today's shares.03
0.49×

Risked NAV · US$7,544m

Asset P / NAV 0.5× Enterprise value ÷ attributable project NPV. Excludes corporate G&A, cash, debt and financing, so it compares across peers.

Includes US$402m deduction for non-debt claims.

Unrisked 0.49×

NAV / share04
US$59.25

Risked NAV / diluted share

Unrisked US$59.25 / share

2026E EV / EBITDA05
4.35×

Enterprise value US$3,817m

Accounting EBITDA US$878m

EV / reserve t06
US$2.2/t

1,749 Mt attributable saleable reserves

Model notes
Valuation & risk
Current share priceUS$28.85
Risked NAV / shareUS$59.25
Unrisked NAV / shareUS$59.25
Risk charge / shareUS$0
NAV retained after risk 100%
US$0m risk charge
Risked NAV US$7,544m Risk charge US$0m
Market-implied rate19.4%Spot EV reconciled to model NAV
Unrisked DCFUS$7,544mBase discount rate
Risked DCFUS$7,544mCountry + permitting in rate
Risk costUS$0m0% of unrisked NAV

Investment case

Spot case
01

Valuation gap

The market is pricing the company at 0.49× risked NAV, with +105.4% to the modeled per-share value.

US$59.25
02

Portfolio concentration

Centurion is the largest modeled value driver at 54.1% of positive project NAV.

54.1%
03

Risk cost

Jurisdiction, permitting and project risk reduce unrisked value by US$0m before the equity bridge.

0%

Price versus modeled value

Market
US$28.85
US$0 US$149.59
Current share priceUS$28.85
Risked NAV / shareUS$59.25
Unrisked NAV / shareUS$59.25
Risk charge / share US$0

Production and sustaining FCF

Sustaining free cash flow after tax and production, both at the company's ownership share.

First positive2026
Peak modeledUS$922m
$0
US$324m
2026 110 Mt
US$474m
2027 109 Mt
US$516m
2028 109 Mt
US$509m
2029 107 Mt
US$753m
2030 107 Mt
US$922m
2031 105 Mt
US$758m
2032 104 Mt
US$693m
2033 98 Mt
US$691m
2034 95 Mt

110 Mt peak attributable production

8.8% 2026E FCF yield

US$259m net cash entering the model

Cash flow statement

Attributable to Peabody Energy Corporation shareholders. Each mine is modeled at 100%, including royalties and taxes, then included at the company's ownership share, so minority and government interests are already excluded.

10 years Risked basis
Spot scenario
2026–2035
USD millions, except percentages and per-unit dataFY26202720282029203020312032203320342035
109.9109.4108.7107.3107.4105.1103.897.695.286.5
US$4,690mUS$4,866mUS$5,015mUS$4,923mUS$5,243mUS$5,244mUS$4,888mUS$4,507mUS$4,255mUS$3,563m
US$3,005mUS$2,841mUS$2,875mUS$2,817mUS$2,843mUS$2,657mUS$2,574mUS$2,379mUS$2,228mUS$1,977m
US$266mUS$325mUS$396mUS$382mUS$422mUS$422mUS$399mUS$408mUS$363mUS$326m
AISC (US$/t)
3231.332.932.232.831.831.230.62928.3
G&A
US$98mUS$98mUS$98mUS$98mUS$98mUS$98mUS$98mUS$98mUS$98mUS$98m
US$878mUS$1,162mUS$1,245mUS$1,234mUS$1,467mUS$1,605mUS$1,366mUS$1,200mUS$1,136mUS$869m
Depreciation & depletion
US$22mUS$61mUS$91mUS$111mUS$166mUS$191mUS$212mUS$214mUS$247mUS$219m
US$856mUS$1,102mUS$1,154mUS$1,123mUS$1,301mUS$1,414mUS$1,154mUS$985mUS$889mUS$650m
Interest expense
US$2mUS$2mUS$1mUS$1mUS$0mUS$0mUS$0mUS$0mUS$0mUS$0m
US$854mUS$1,100mUS$1,153mUS$1,123mUS$1,301mUS$1,414mUS$1,154mUS$985mUS$889mUS$650m
US$270mUS$348mUS$366mUS$360mUS$413mUS$448mUS$373mUS$326mUS$296mUS$224m
US$584mUS$752mUS$787mUS$763mUS$887mUS$966mUS$781mUS$660mUS$593mUS$426m
US$262mUS$310mUS$328mUS$347mUS$316mUS$279mUS$274mUS$217mUS$183mUS$141m
Growth capex
US$0mUS$0mUS$0mUS$0mUS$0mUS$0mUS$0mUS$0mUS$0mUS$0m
US$324mUS$474mUS$516mUS$509mUS$753mUS$922mUS$758mUS$693mUS$691mUS$554m
8.8%12.9%14.1%13.9%20.5%25.1%20.6%18.9%18.8%15.1%
US$136mUS$445mUS$453mUS$418mUS$577mUS$660mUS$508mUS$434mUS$404mUS$303m
Cash
US$638mUS$1,051mUS$1,506mUS$1,955mUS$2,683mUS$3,605mUS$4,363mUS$5,056mUS$5,747mUS$6,301m
EV
US$3,277mUS$2,804mUS$2,287mUS$1,778mUS$1,025mUS$103m−US$655m−US$1,348m−US$2,039m−US$2,593m
Yield denominators: market cap US$3,673m, EV = market cap less US$259m net cash plus US$402m non-debt claims. Asset level rows are model mine-plan values and may not sum exactly to the consolidated line. Tax shield rows are reference-only breakdowns already reflected in cash taxes, not additional cash inflows. Changes in receivables, inventory and payables are not separately modeled in this waterfall.
Spending details
G&A · annual US$m97.8
Exploration · annual US$m0
Of which drilling · annual US$m0
All-in drilling cost · US$/m—

All-in cost per metre needs a disclosed cost or matching spend and metres for the same program and period.

Partial operating coverage

8 operating models · 2 valuation-only assets. Valuation-only assets remain in NAV, but do not contribute production, AISC or cash-flow rows until a source-backed economic study exists.

NAV by asset

US$7,688m total

Mines, 2026 attributable

Metric tonnes; US$/t. Cash cost includes rail and port where reported FOB.

MineProductOwnSaleable MtCash costRoyaltySustainingMarginReserves MtLife toNPV US$m
Centurion MinePremium hard coking coal (Goonyella Middle seam)100%2.0$195$56$48−$32174.220554,227
Wilpinjong MineExport thermal, 5,000-6,000 kcal/kg NAR, mid to high ash100%—————71.7—1,186
Wambo Open-Cut MinePremium export thermal, ~6,000 kcal/kg NAR50%3.0$74$16$8$5356.22035731
Other U.S. Thermal MinesIllinois Basin high-sulfur and western thermal100%12.4$52$0$2$895.32039455
Coppabella and Moorvale Mines (CMJV)Premium low-volatile PCI73%2.9$115$26$11$3143.32036453
Shoal Creek MineHigh Vol A coking coal100%1.6$115$0$11$5711.82033401
Metropolitan MineHard/semi-hard coking coal (60%) and by-products (40%)100%1.5$115$18$11$398.22031165
North Antelope Rochelle MinePRB sub-bituminous100%59.3$14$0$0$11,119.52047131
Caballo and Rawhide MinesPRB sub-bituminous100%17.7$14$0$1$1208.7203963
Wilpinjong AGL SupplyDomestic thermal (AGL supply)100%———————(123)
Total100.6$30$2$57,688

Benchmark to realised price, 2026

Spot case · US$ per metric tonne.

MineBenchmarkIndexRealisedRealised %Quality / basis
Centurion MinePLV HCC$271$26799%8.0% ash · 0.50% S · 21.4% VM · LOM revenue per ton in the Aug 2026 Centurion update
Wambo Open-Cut MinegC NEWC$150$150101%6,000–6,400 kcal/kg · 11.8% ash · 0.30% S · 2026 priced export segment realization
Other U.S. Thermal Mines——$57—9,250–11,500 Btu/lb · 2026 priced segment realization
Coppabella and Moorvale Mines (CMJV)PLV HCC$271$18367%9.6% ash · 0.20% S · 10.4% VM · Segment realization relative to PLV
Shoal Creek MinePLV HCC$246$16667%9.9% ash · 0.70% S · 30.2% VM · Segment realization relative to PLV
Metropolitan MinePLV HCC$271$18367%11.9% ash · 0.40% S · 18.2% VM · Segment realization relative to PLV
North Antelope Rochelle Mine——$14—8,910–8,970 Btu/lb · 4.6% ash · 0.20% S · 2026 priced PRB segment realization
Caballo and Rawhide Mines——$14—8,280–8,430 Btu/lb · 2026 priced PRB segment realization
Company$234$3880%

Production

Spot case

Attributable production by mine

Spot case

AISC by mine

Life-of-mine average · excludes corporate G&A

10 covered assets

Attributable economics on the spot case.

Project NAV US$7,811m
01
Centurion Australia · Production · 100% owned
→
Attr. NAVUS$4,227m
NAV share54.1%
AISC 155 US$/t
02
Wilpinjong Australia · Production · 100% owned
→
Attr. NAVUS$1,186m
NAV share15.2%
AISC 67 US$/t
03
Wambo Open Cut Australia · Production · 50% owned
→
Attr. NAVUS$731m
NAV share9.4%
AISC 97 US$/t
04
Other U.s. Thermal Mines USA · Production · 100% owned
→
Attr. NAVUS$455m
NAV share5.8%
AISC 49 US$/t
05
Coppabella And Moorvale Mines (cmjv) Australia · Production · 73.3% owned
→
Attr. NAVUS$453m
NAV share5.8%
AISC 152 US$/t
06
Shoal Creek USA · Production · 100% owned
→
Attr. NAVUS$401m
NAV share5.1%
AISC 115 US$/t
07
Metropolitan Australia · Production · 100% owned
→
Attr. NAVUS$165m
NAV share2.1%
AISC 144 US$/t
08
North Antelope Rochelle USA · Production · 100% owned
→
Attr. NAVUS$131m
NAV share1.7%
AISC 13 US$/t
09
Caballo And Rawhide Mines USA · Production · 100% owned
→
Attr. NAVUS$63m
NAV share0.8%
AISC 13 US$/t
10
Wilpinjong AGL Supply Australia · Production · 100% owned
→
Attr. NAV−US$123m
NAV share-1.6%
AISC 52 US$/t