Investment verdict
Asset assessment not published
Detailed assessment dimensions are not published for this asset.
WI
Operating asset
Wilpinjong AGL Supply
Valuation case2026-10-16
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Valuation snapshot
Unrisked NPV $-123m
Project DCF before the published stage and execution-risk charge.
Risk charge −$0m
Value removed by the model's project-stage and execution-risk adjustment.
Risked NPV $-123m
Selected project value after risk, before ownership attribution.
Effective discount rate 7%
Time-value hurdle used for the project DCF after published adjustments.
NPV at first production $-123m
Production-value anchor with pre-production timing removed; used by the FSV ladder.
Annual operating profile
Spot · risked · 100% of project
Saleable coal and CHPP yieldannual ROM-to-product conversion
Mt · %Saleable-tonne economics2026E operating row and life-of-mine cost basis
US$/tRealised price$37.48/t
Site cash cost$44.53/t
Cash cost incl. sustaining$52.11/t
Cash margin$-8.67/t
ROM coal10.7 Mt
Saleable coal10.7 Mt
LOM saleable yield100%
Site cost / ROM t$44.53/t
A 100% yield indicates a schedule already expressed in saleable tonnes.
Revenue and cost stackcosts and capital aligned below zero
US$mCapital recoveryannual and cumulative project cash flow
US$mTimeline Built from the stored anchor years: construction start, first production, and closure (or first production plus reserve life where no closure year is published). The marker is the year the current valuation is struck from.
Construction
2006–2026
Production
2026–2029
20062009201220152018202120242027
Dashed line marks 2026, the year this valuation is struck from.
Valuation framework Fair speculative value ladder Production →
Two valuation lenses $-123m production-value OV anchors the speculative
ladder; $-123m stage-risked DCF is the selected modeled project value.
Speculative value by development stage
Current model stage Production 100%–100%
certainty
Market-implied project value $3,673m Company market capitalization
USD OV NPV—At production value
Diluted127.3mCompany shares F.D.
Net interest100%Attributable ownership
Exchange rate1.0000USD framework
The selected model does not have a positive production-value NPV, so a speculative-value range
would be misleading.
Project stage Certainty FSV range Attributable FSV USD / share
01 Grassroots
0.5%–1%
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02 Target Drilling
1%–2.5%
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03 Discovery Delineation
2.5%–5%
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04 Infill & Metallurgy
5%–10%
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05 PEA
10%–25%
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06 Prefeasibility
25%–50%
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07 Permitting & Feasibility
50%–75%
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08 Construction
75%–100%
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09 Production Current
100%
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