Company coverage / CNR Valuation date 19 Oct 2026
CN

Core Natural Resources, Inc.

CNR · USA · 5 operating models

Last close US$90.35
Market cap US$4,508m
Realised US$43/t
Producer
Valuation case 2026-10-19
Market cap01
US$4,508m

US$90.35 × 49.9m diluted shares

2026E FCF yield02
12%

Coverage average —

Company P / NAV Market cap ÷ equity NAV: project NPV less corporate G&A and non-debt claims, plus cash less debt, on today's shares.03
0.68×

Risked NAV · US$6,583m

Asset P / NAV 0.68× Enterprise value ÷ attributable project NPV. Excludes corporate G&A, cash, debt and financing, so it compares across peers.

Unrisked 0.68×

NAV / share04
US$131.95

Risked NAV / diluted share

Unrisked US$131.95 / share

2026E EV / EBITDA05
4.78×

Enterprise value US$4,476m

Accounting EBITDA US$936m

EV / reserve t06
US$4.4/t

1,023 Mt attributable saleable reserves

Model notes
Valuation & risk
Current share priceUS$90.35
Risked NAV / shareUS$131.95
Unrisked NAV / shareUS$131.95
Risk charge / shareUS$0
NAV retained after risk 100%
US$0m risk charge
Risked NAV US$6,583m Risk charge US$0m
Market-implied rate12.3%Spot EV reconciled to model NAV
Unrisked DCFUS$6,583mBase discount rate
Risked DCFUS$6,583mCountry + permitting in rate
Risk costUS$0m0% of unrisked NAV

Investment case

Spot case
01

Valuation gap

The market is pricing the company at 0.68× risked NAV, with +46% to the modeled per-share value.

US$131.95
02

Portfolio concentration

Leer Complex is the largest modeled value driver at 48.8% of positive project NAV.

48.8%
03

Risk cost

Jurisdiction, permitting and project risk reduce unrisked value by US$0m before the equity bridge.

0%

Price versus modeled value

Market
US$90.35
US$0 US$365.73
Current share priceUS$90.35
Risked NAV / shareUS$131.95
Unrisked NAV / shareUS$131.95
Risk charge / share US$0

Production and sustaining FCF

Sustaining free cash flow after tax and production, both at the company's ownership share.

First positive2026
Peak modeledUS$677m
$0
US$543m
2026 86 Mt
US$435m
2027 83 Mt
US$469m
2028 81 Mt
US$364m
2029 73 Mt
US$302m
2030 73 Mt
US$385m
2031 63 Mt
US$144m
2032 59 Mt
US$290m
2033 58 Mt
US$669m
2034 59 Mt

86 Mt peak attributable production

12% 2026E FCF yield

US$32m net cash entering the model

Cash flow statement

Attributable to Core Natural Resources, Inc. shareholders. Each mine is modeled at 100%, including royalties and taxes, then included at the company's ownership share, so minority and government interests are already excluded.

10 years Risked basis
Spot scenario
2026–2035
USD millions, except percentages and per-unit dataFY26202720282029203020312032203320342035
86.183.481.472.873.36358.657.858.952.4
US$3,734mUS$3,744mUS$3,706mUS$3,518mUS$3,583mUS$3,368mUS$3,064mUS$3,179mUS$3,332mUS$3,337m
US$2,693mUS$2,641mUS$2,597mUS$2,548mUS$2,588mUS$2,359mUS$2,218mUS$2,236mUS$2,178mUS$2,183m
Royalties
——————————
AISC (US$/t)
34.835.635.53940.742.945.946.841.346.5
G&A
US$87mUS$87mUS$87mUS$87mUS$87mUS$87mUS$87mUS$87mUS$87mUS$87m
US$936mUS$999mUS$1,004mUS$866mUS$890mUS$905mUS$742mUS$838mUS$1,049mUS$1,050m
Depreciation & depletion
US$18mUS$40mUS$63mUS$88mUS$134mUS$159mUS$120mUS$155mUS$183mUS$208m
US$918mUS$959mUS$942mUS$778mUS$756mUS$746mUS$622mUS$683mUS$866mUS$841m
Interest expense
US$26mUS$22mUS$18mUS$15mUS$11mUS$7mUS$4mUS$0mUS$0mUS$0m
US$892mUS$937mUS$923mUS$763mUS$745mUS$739mUS$619mUS$683mUS$866mUS$841m
US$269mUS$278mUS$272mUS$231mUS$224mUS$218mUS$186mUS$202mUS$250mUS$243m
US$623mUS$658mUS$652mUS$533mUS$521mUS$520mUS$433mUS$481mUS$616mUS$598m
US$303mUS$332mUS$295mUS$295mUS$392mUS$344mUS$468mUS$471mUS$254mUS$253m
Growth capex
US$0mUS$0mUS$0mUS$0mUS$0mUS$0mUS$0mUS$0mUS$0mUS$0m
US$543mUS$435mUS$469mUS$364mUS$302mUS$385mUS$144mUS$290mUS$669mUS$677m
12%9.7%10.4%8.1%6.7%8.6%3.2%6.4%14.8%15%
US$227mUS$409mUS$411mUS$299mUS$232mUS$276mUS$97mUS$181mUS$391mUS$370m
Cash
US$678mUS$1,050mUS$1,455mUS$1,756mUS$1,995mUS$2,317mUS$2,398mUS$2,688mUS$3,357mUS$4,033m
EV
US$4,246mUS$3,810mUS$3,342mUS$2,978mUS$2,676mUS$2,290mUS$2,146mUS$1,856mUS$1,187mUS$511m
Yield denominators: market cap US$4,508m, EV = market cap less US$32m net cash. Asset level rows are model mine-plan values and may not sum exactly to the consolidated line. Tax shield rows are reference-only breakdowns already reflected in cash taxes, not additional cash inflows. Changes in receivables, inventory and payables are not separately modeled in this waterfall.
Spending details
G&A · annual US$m87.16
Exploration · annual US$m0
Of which drilling · annual US$m0
All-in drilling cost · US$/m—

All-in cost per metre needs a disclosed cost or matching spend and metres for the same program and period.

NAV by asset

US$6,552m total

Mines, 2026 attributable

Metric tonnes; US$/t. Cash cost includes rail and port where reported FOB.

MineProductOwnSaleable MtCash costRoyaltySustainingMarginReserves MtLife toNPV US$m
Leer ComplexHigh Vol A metallurgical plus middlings100%6.2$89$0$13$52154.420623,309
Pennsylvania Mining ComplexHigh CV thermal100%24.0$44$0$7$14479.920452,972
Other Metallurgical MinesLow-vol and High Vol A metallurgical coal100%2.1$123$0$12$2059.92100398
West Elk MineHigh CV thermal100%5.0$44$0$7$628.62031106
Black Thunder MinePRB sub-bituminous100%40.8$15$0$0$0300.72038(233)
Total78.1$35$4$96,552

Benchmark to realised price, 2026

Spot case · US$ per metric tonne.

MineBenchmarkIndexRealisedRealised %Quality / basis
Leer ComplexPLV HCC$246$14057%13,990 Btu/lb · 9.3% ash · 1.17% S · 33.7% VM · LOM FOB-mine realization after transport and middlings mix
Pennsylvania Mining Complex——$58—12,670–13,320 Btu/lb · 2026 segment realized-revenue guidance
Other Metallurgical MinesPLV HCC$246$14057%Segment coking realisation applied to Beckley, Mountain Laurel and Itmann No. 5
West Elk Mine——$51—11,644 Btu/lb · 10.1% ash · 0.59% S · 2026 contracting commentary
Black Thunder Mine——$14—8,910 Btu/lb · 4.8% ash · 0.30% S · 31.9% VM · 2026 committed realized-revenue guidance
Company$246$4357%

Production

Spot case

Attributable production by mine

Spot case

AISC by mine

Life-of-mine average · excludes corporate G&A

5 covered assets

Attributable economics on the spot case.

Project NAV US$6,785m
01
Leer Complex USA · Production · 100% owned
→
Attr. NAVUS$3,309m
NAV share48.8%
AISC 83 US$/t
02
Pennsylvania Mining Complex USA · Production · 100% owned
→
Attr. NAVUS$2,972m
NAV share43.8%
AISC 46 US$/t
03
Other Metallurgical Mines USA · Production · 100% owned
→
Attr. NAVUS$398m
NAV share5.9%
AISC 122 US$/t
04
West Elk USA · Production · 100% owned
→
Attr. NAVUS$106m
NAV share1.6%
AISC 46 US$/t
05
Black Thunder USA · Production · 100% owned
→
Attr. NAV−US$233m
NAV share-3.4%
AISC 15 US$/t