Company coverage / SMR.ASX Valuation date 16 Oct 2026
SM

Stanmore Resources Limited

SMR.AX · Australia · 3 operating models

Last close A$2.71
Market cap US$1,690m
Realised US$184/t
Producer
Valuation case 2026-10-16
Market cap01
US$1,690m

US$1.8753 × 901.4m diluted shares

2026E FCF yield02
7.5%

Coverage average 4.4%

Company P / NAV Market cap ÷ equity NAV: project NPV less corporate G&A and non-debt claims, plus cash less debt, on today's shares.03
0.83×

Risked NAV · US$2,027m

Asset P / NAV 0.84× Enterprise value ÷ attributable project NPV. Excludes corporate G&A, cash, debt and financing, so it compares across peers.

Unrisked 0.83×

NAV / share04
US$2.25

Risked NAV / diluted share

Unrisked US$2.25 / share

2026E EV / EBITDA05
4.73×

Enterprise value US$1,768m

Accounting EBITDA US$373m

EV / reserve t06
US$8.9/t

199 Mt attributable saleable reserves

Model notes
Valuation & risk
Current share priceUS$1.88
Risked NAV / shareUS$2.25
Unrisked NAV / shareUS$2.25
Risk charge / shareUS$0
NAV retained after risk 100%
US$0m risk charge
Risked NAV US$2,027m Risk charge US$0m
Market-implied rate10.1%Spot EV reconciled to model NAV
Unrisked DCFUS$2,027mBase discount rate
Risked DCFUS$2,027mCountry + permitting in rate
Risk costUS$0m0% of unrisked NAV

Investment case

Spot case
01

Valuation gap

The market is pricing the company at 0.83× risked NAV, with +19.9% to the modeled per-share value.

US$2.25
02

Portfolio concentration

South Walker Creek is the largest modeled value driver at 81.4% of positive project NAV.

81.4%
03

Risk cost

Jurisdiction, permitting and project risk reduce unrisked value by US$0m before the equity bridge.

0%

Price versus modeled value

Market
US$1.88
US$0 US$5.94
Current share priceUS$1.88
Risked NAV / shareUS$2.25
Unrisked NAV / shareUS$2.25
Risk charge / share US$0

Production and sustaining FCF

Sustaining free cash flow after tax and production, both at the company's ownership share.

First positive2026
Peak modeledUS$165m
$0
US$128m
2026 13 Mt
US$129m
2027 13 Mt
US$130m
2028 12 Mt
−US$112m
2029 12 Mt
US$161m
2030 12 Mt
US$165m
2031 11 Mt
US$73m
2032 7 Mt
US$74m
2033 7 Mt
US$75m
2034 7 Mt

13 Mt peak attributable production

7.5% 2026E FCF yield

US$78m net debt entering the model

Cash flow statement

Attributable to Stanmore Resources Limited shareholders. Each mine is modeled at 100%, including royalties and taxes, then included at the company's ownership share, so minority and government interests are already excluded.

10 years Risked basis
Spot scenario
2026–2035
USD millions, except percentages and per-unit dataFY26202720282029203020312032203320342035
13.112.712.311.511.511.36.86.86.86.8
US$2,407mUS$2,337mUS$2,266mUS$2,126mUS$2,126mUS$2,089mUS$1,257mUS$1,257mUS$1,257mUS$1,257m
US$1,654mUS$1,597mUS$1,541mUS$1,427mUS$1,427mUS$1,402mUS$841mUS$841mUS$841mUS$841m
US$340mUS$331mUS$321mUS$303mUS$303mUS$297mUS$179mUS$179mUS$179mUS$179m
AISC (US$/t)
154.9154.6154.2152.5152.5152.6148.8148.8148.8148.8
G&A
US$39mUS$39mUS$39mUS$39mUS$39mUS$39mUS$39mUS$39mUS$39mUS$39m
US$373mUS$369mUS$365mUS$357mUS$357mUS$350mUS$198mUS$198mUS$198mUS$198m
Depreciation & depletion
US$13mUS$28mUS$46mUS$42mUS$62mUS$96mUS$22mUS$27mUS$31mUS$36m
US$361mUS$342mUS$319mUS$315mUS$295mUS$254mUS$175mUS$171mUS$166mUS$161m
Interest expense
US$18mUS$18mUS$18mUS$18mUS$0mUS$0mUS$0mUS$0mUS$0mUS$0m
US$343mUS$324mUS$301mUS$297mUS$295mUS$254mUS$175mUS$171mUS$166mUS$161m
US$136mUS$131mUS$124mUS$123mUS$117mUS$104mUS$81mUS$80mUS$78mUS$77m
US$206mUS$193mUS$177mUS$174mUS$178mUS$150mUS$95mUS$92mUS$88mUS$85m
US$90mUS$90mUS$90mUS$79mUS$79mUS$79mUS$47mUS$47mUS$47mUS$47m
Growth capex
US$0mUS$0mUS$0mUS$0mUS$0mUS$0mUS$0mUS$0mUS$0mUS$0m
US$128mUS$129mUS$130m−US$112mUS$161mUS$165mUS$73mUS$74mUS$75mUS$77m
7.5%7.6%7.7%-6.7%9.5%9.7%4.3%4.4%4.5%4.5%
US$53mUS$121mUS$115m−US$92mUS$123mUS$118mUS$49mUS$46mUS$44mUS$42m
Cash
US$227mUS$356mUS$486mUS$124mUS$285mUS$449mUS$522mUS$596mUS$671mUS$748m
EV
US$1,714mUS$1,585mUS$1,454mUS$1,567mUS$1,406mUS$1,241mUS$1,169mUS$1,095mUS$1,019mUS$942m
Yield denominators: market cap US$1,690m, EV = market cap plus US$78m net debt. Asset level rows are model mine-plan values and may not sum exactly to the consolidated line. Tax shield rows are reference-only breakdowns already reflected in cash taxes, not additional cash inflows. Changes in receivables, inventory and payables are not separately modeled in this waterfall.
Spending details
G&A · annual US$m39.2
Exploration · annual US$m0
Of which drilling · annual US$m0
All-in drilling cost · US$/m—

All-in cost per metre needs a disclosed cost or matching spend and metres for the same program and period.

NAV by asset

US$2,105m total

Mines, 2026 attributable

Metric tonnes; US$/t. Cash cost includes rail and port where reported FOB.

MineProductOwnSaleable MtCash costRoyaltySustainingMarginReserves MtLife toNPV US$m
South Walker Creek MinePredominantly high-quality low-volatility PCI100%6.8$116$26$7$36122.020431,715
Poitrel MineApproximately 65% hard coking coal and 35% PCI100%4.7$125$26$7$2728.02031392
Isaac Plains ComplexMetallurgical coal100%1.6$142$23$7$349.02028(2)
Total13.1$122$7$292,105

Benchmark to realised price, 2026

Spot case · US$ per metric tonne.

MineBenchmarkIndexRealisedRealised %Quality / basis
South Walker Creek MineLV PCI$191$18597%Long-run realised/LV PCI relativity (base); 1H26 PLV relativity is the labelled downside.
Poitrel MineLV PCI$191$18597%Long-run realised/LV PCI relativity (base); 1H26 PLV relativity is the labelled downside.
Isaac Plains ComplexLV PCI$191$17592%Long-run realised/LV PCI relativity (base); 1H26 PLV relativity is the labelled downside.
Company$191$18496%

Production

Spot case

Attributable production by mine

Spot case

AISC by mine

Life-of-mine average · excludes corporate G&A

3 covered assets

Attributable economics on the spot case.

Project NAV US$2,107m
01
South Walker Creek Australia · Production · 100% owned
→
Attr. NAVUS$1,715m
NAV share81.4%
AISC 149 US$/t
02
Poitrel Australia · Production · 100% owned
→
Attr. NAVUS$392m
NAV share18.6%
AISC 158 US$/t
03
Isaac Plains Complex Australia · Production · 100% owned
→
Attr. NAV−US$2m
NAV share-0.1%
AISC 174 US$/t