Company coverage / HCC Valuation date 16 Oct 2026
HC

Warrior Met Coal, Inc.

HCC · United States · 1 operating model

Last close US$89.94
Market cap US$4,755m
Realised US$176/t
Producer
Valuation case 2026-10-16
Market cap01
US$4,755m

US$89.94 × 52.9m diluted shares

2026E FCF yield02
11.8%

Coverage average 4.4%

Company P / NAV Market cap ÷ equity NAV: project NPV less corporate G&A and non-debt claims, plus cash less debt, on today's shares.03
0.88×

Risked NAV · US$5,389m

Asset P / NAV 0.88× Enterprise value ÷ attributable project NPV. Excludes corporate G&A, cash, debt and financing, so it compares across peers.

Unrisked 0.88×

NAV / share04
US$101.93

Risked NAV / diluted share

Unrisked US$101.93 / share

2026E EV / EBITDA05
6.49×

Enterprise value US$4,599m

Accounting EBITDA US$708m

EV / reserve t06
US$25.7/t

179 Mt attributable saleable reserves

Model notes
Valuation & risk
Current share priceUS$89.94
Risked NAV / shareUS$101.93
Unrisked NAV / shareUS$101.93
Risk charge / shareUS$0
NAV retained after risk 100%
US$0m risk charge
Risked NAV US$5,389m Risk charge US$0m
Market-implied rate9.5%Spot EV reconciled to model NAV
Unrisked DCFUS$5,389mBase discount rate
Risked DCFUS$5,389mCountry + permitting in rate
Risk costUS$0m0% of unrisked NAV

Investment case

Spot case
01

Valuation gap

The market is pricing the company at 0.88× risked NAV, with +13.3% to the modeled per-share value.

US$101.93
02

Portfolio concentration

Mines No. 4, No. 7 & Blue Creek is the largest modeled value driver at 100% of positive project NAV.

100%
03

Risk cost

Jurisdiction, permitting and project risk reduce unrisked value by US$0m before the equity bridge.

0%

Price versus modeled value

Market
US$89.94
US$0 US$213.77
Current share priceUS$89.94
Risked NAV / shareUS$101.93
Unrisked NAV / shareUS$101.93
Risk charge / share US$0

Production and sustaining FCF

Sustaining free cash flow after tax and production, both at the company's ownership share.

First positive2026
Peak modeledUS$599m
$0
US$560m
2026 12 Mt
US$599m
2027 12 Mt
US$419m
2028 12 Mt
US$572m
2029 12 Mt
US$530m
2030 12 Mt
US$532m
2031 12 Mt
US$534m
2032 12 Mt
US$506m
2033 12 Mt
US$474m
2034 12 Mt

12 Mt peak attributable production

11.8% 2026E FCF yield

US$156m net cash entering the model

Cash flow statement

Attributable to Warrior Met Coal, Inc. shareholders. Each mine is modeled at 100%, including royalties and taxes, then included at the company's ownership share, so minority and government interests are already excluded.

10 years Risked basis
Spot scenario
2026–2035
USD millions, except percentages and per-unit dataFY26202720282029203020312032203320342035
12.212.212.212.212.212.212.212.212.212.2
US$2,158mUS$2,158mUS$2,158mUS$2,158mUS$2,158mUS$2,158mUS$2,158mUS$2,158mUS$2,158mUS$2,158m
US$1,225mUS$1,225mUS$1,225mUS$1,225mUS$1,261mUS$1,261mUS$1,261mUS$1,261mUS$1,261mUS$1,261m
US$145mUS$145mUS$145mUS$145mUS$145mUS$145mUS$145mUS$145mUS$145mUS$145m
AISC (US$/t)
120.8120.8120.8120.8123.8123.8123.8123.8123.8123.8
G&A
US$55mUS$55mUS$55mUS$55mUS$55mUS$55mUS$55mUS$55mUS$55mUS$55m
US$708mUS$708mUS$708mUS$708mUS$672mUS$672mUS$672mUS$672mUS$672mUS$672m
Depreciation & depletion
US$195mUS$203mUS$211mUS$221mUS$231mUS$243mUS$255mUS$270mUS$286mUS$306m
US$513mUS$505mUS$497mUS$487mUS$441mUS$430mUS$417mUS$402mUS$386mUS$366m
Interest expense
US$12mUS$12mUS$12mUS$0mUS$0mUS$0mUS$0mUS$0mUS$0mUS$0m
US$501mUS$493mUS$484mUS$487mUS$441mUS$430mUS$417mUS$402mUS$386mUS$366m
US$155mUS$153mUS$151mUS$148mUS$136mUS$133mUS$130mUS$126mUS$122mUS$117m
US$346mUS$340mUS$334mUS$339mUS$305mUS$296mUS$287mUS$276mUS$264mUS$250m
US$110mUS$110mUS$110mUS$110mUS$110mUS$110mUS$110mUS$110mUS$110mUS$110m
US$63mUS$0mUS$0mUS$0mUS$0mUS$0mUS$0mUS$0mUS$0mUS$0m
US$560mUS$599mUS$419mUS$572mUS$530mUS$532mUS$534mUS$506mUS$474mUS$474m
11.8%12.6%8.8%12%11.1%11.2%11.2%10.6%10%10%
US$235mUS$562mUS$368mUS$470mUS$406mUS$382mUS$358mUS$317mUS$277mUS$259m
Cash
US$524mUS$1,123mUS$1,385mUS$1,958mUS$2,487mUS$3,020mUS$3,554mUS$4,060mUS$4,534mUS$5,008m
EV
US$4,388mUS$3,789mUS$3,370mUS$2,798mUS$2,268mUS$1,736mUS$1,201mUS$695mUS$221m−US$253m
Yield denominators: market cap US$4,755m, EV = market cap less US$156m net cash. Asset level rows are model mine-plan values and may not sum exactly to the consolidated line. Tax shield rows are reference-only breakdowns already reflected in cash taxes, not additional cash inflows. Changes in receivables, inventory and payables are not separately modeled in this waterfall.
Spending details
G&A · annual US$m54.85
Exploration · annual US$m0
Of which drilling · annual US$m0
All-in drilling cost · US$/m—

All-in cost per metre needs a disclosed cost or matching spend and metres for the same program and period.

NAV by asset

US$5,233m total

Mines, 2026 attributable

Metric tonnes; US$/t. Cash cost includes rail and port where reported FOB.

MineProductOwnSaleable MtCash costRoyaltySustainingMarginReserves MtLife toNPV US$m
Mines No. 4, No. 7 & Blue CreekMine No. 7 low-vol HCC plus Mine No. 4 and Blue Creek High Vol A100%12.2$100$12$9$55179.320405,233
Total12.2$100$9$555,233

Benchmark to realised price, 2026

Spot case · US$ per metric tonne.

MineBenchmarkIndexRealisedRealised %Quality / basis
Mines No. 4, No. 7 & Blue CreekPLV HCC$271$17665%10.0% ash · 0.78% S · 29.3% VM · Q2 2026 average net selling price of US$151.91/t is the study anchor; market scenarios use price_benchmark x realisation_ratio.
Company$271$17665%

Production

Spot case

Attributable production by mine

Spot case

AISC by mine

Life-of-mine average · excludes corporate G&A

1 covered assets

Attributable economics on the spot case.

Project NAV US$5,233m
01
Mines No. 4, No. 7 & Blue Creek USA · Production · 100% owned
→
Attr. NAVUS$5,233m
NAV share100%
AISC 123 US$/t