Company coverage / WHC.ASX Valuation date 16 Oct 2026
WH

Whitehaven Coal Limited

WHC.AX · Australia · 6 operating models · 1 valuation-only asset

Last close A$7.54
Market cap US$4,280m
Realised US$175/t
Producer
Valuation case 2026-10-16
Market cap01
US$4,280m

US$5.4288 × 788.3m diluted shares

2026E FCF yield02
2.8%

Coverage average 4.4%

Company P / NAV Market cap ÷ equity NAV: project NPV less corporate G&A and non-debt claims, plus cash less debt, on today's shares.03
0.62×

Risked NAV · US$6,929m

Asset P / NAV 0.67× Enterprise value ÷ attributable project NPV. Excludes corporate G&A, cash, debt and financing, so it compares across peers.

Unrisked 0.61×

NAV / share04
US$8.79

Risked NAV / diluted share

Unrisked US$8.95 / share

2026E EV / EBITDA05
4.43×

Enterprise value US$5,718m

Accounting EBITDA US$1,291m

EV / reserve t06
US$4.4/t

1,291 Mt attributable saleable reserves

Model notes
Valuation & risk
Current share priceUS$5.43
Risked NAV / shareUS$8.79
Unrisked NAV / shareUS$8.95
Risk charge / shareUS$0.16
NAV retained after risk 98.2%
US$128m risk charge
Risked NAV US$6,929m Risk charge US$128m
Market-implied rate12.4%Spot EV reconciled to model NAV
Unrisked DCFUS$7,057mBase discount rate
Risked DCFUS$6,929mCountry + permitting in rate
Risk costUS$128m1.5% of unrisked NAV

Investment case

Spot case
01

Valuation gap

The market is pricing the company at 0.61× risked NAV, with +64.9% to the modeled per-share value.

US$8.95
02

Portfolio concentration

Blackwater is the largest modeled value driver at 33.3% of positive project NAV.

33.3%
03

Risk cost

Jurisdiction, permitting and project risk reduce unrisked value by US$128m before the equity bridge.

1.5%

Price versus modeled value

Market
US$5.43
US$0 US$23.43
Current share priceUS$5.43
Risked NAV / shareUS$8.95
Unrisked NAV / shareUS$8.95
Risk charge / share US$0.16

Production and sustaining FCF

Sustaining free cash flow after tax and production, both at the company's ownership share.

First positive2026
Peak modeledUS$740m
$0
US$119m
2026 26 Mt
US$152m
2027 26 Mt
US$185m
2028 26 Mt
US$218m
2029 26 Mt
US$251m
2030 36 Mt
US$684m
2031 36 Mt
US$692m
2032 36 Mt
US$700m
2033 36 Mt
US$708m
2034 36 Mt

36 Mt peak attributable production

2.8% 2026E FCF yield

US$1,439m net debt entering the model

Cash flow statement

Attributable to Whitehaven Coal Limited shareholders. Each mine is modeled at 100%, including royalties and taxes, then included at the company's ownership share, so minority and government interests are already excluded.

10 years Risked basis
Spot scenario
2026–2035
USD millions, except percentages and per-unit dataFY26202720282029203020312032203320342035
25.925.925.925.9363636363636
US$4,531mUS$4,531mUS$4,531mUS$4,531mUS$4,531mUS$4,531mUS$4,531mUS$4,531mUS$4,531mUS$4,531m
US$2,605mUS$2,605mUS$2,605mUS$2,605mUS$3,939mUS$3,939mUS$3,939mUS$3,939mUS$3,939mUS$3,939m
US$594mUS$594mUS$594mUS$594mUS$898mUS$898mUS$898mUS$898mUS$898mUS$898m
AISC (US$/t)
133.6133.6133.6133.6144.5144.5144.5144.5144.5144.5
G&A
US$26mUS$26mUS$26mUS$26mUS$26mUS$26mUS$26mUS$26mUS$26mUS$26m
US$1,291mUS$1,291mUS$1,291mUS$1,291mUS$1,291mUS$1,291mUS$1,291mUS$1,291mUS$1,291mUS$1,291m
Depreciation & depletion
US$12mUS$24mUS$36mUS$50mUS$64mUS$79mUS$95mUS$112mUS$131mUS$151m
US$1,280mUS$1,268mUS$1,255mUS$1,241mUS$1,227mUS$1,212mUS$1,196mUS$1,179mUS$1,161mUS$1,141m
Interest expense
US$126mUS$101mUS$76mUS$50mUS$25mUS$0mUS$0mUS$0mUS$0mUS$0m
US$1,154mUS$1,167mUS$1,179mUS$1,191mUS$1,202mUS$1,212mUS$1,196mUS$1,179mUS$1,161mUS$1,141m
US$396mUS$393mUS$389mUS$385mUS$380mUS$376mUS$371mUS$366mUS$360mUS$355m
US$758mUS$774mUS$791mUS$806mUS$822mUS$836mUS$825mUS$813mUS$800mUS$786m
US$266mUS$266mUS$266mUS$266mUS$266mUS$266mUS$266mUS$266mUS$266mUS$266m
US$0mUS$0mUS$0mUS$0mUS$0mUS$0mUS$0mUS$0mUS$0mUS$0m
US$119mUS$152mUS$185mUS$218mUS$251mUS$684mUS$692mUS$700mUS$708mUS$717m
2.8%3.5%4.3%5.1%5.9%16%16.2%16.4%16.6%16.7%
US$50mUS$143mUS$162mUS$179mUS$193mUS$490mUS$464mUS$438mUS$414mUS$392m
Cash
US$441mUS$193m−US$22m−US$204m−US$352mUS$332mUS$1,025mUS$1,725mUS$2,433mUS$3,149m
EV
US$5,668mUS$5,516mUS$5,331mUS$5,113mUS$4,861mUS$4,177mUS$3,485mUS$2,785mUS$2,077mUS$1,360m
Yield denominators: market cap US$4,280m, EV = market cap plus US$1,439m net debt. Asset level rows are model mine-plan values and may not sum exactly to the consolidated line. Tax shield rows are reference-only breakdowns already reflected in cash taxes, not additional cash inflows. Changes in receivables, inventory and payables are not separately modeled in this waterfall.
Spending details
G&A · annual US$m25.92
Exploration · annual US$m0
Of which drilling · annual US$m0
All-in drilling cost · US$/m—

All-in cost per metre needs a disclosed cost or matching spend and metres for the same program and period.

Partial operating coverage

6 operating models · 1 valuation-only asset. Valuation-only assets remain in NAV, but do not contribute production, AISC or cash-flow rows until a source-backed economic study exists.

NAV by asset

US$8,495m total

Mines, 2026 attributable

Metric tonnes; US$/t. Cash cost includes rail and port where reported FOB.

MineProductOwnSaleable MtCash costRoyaltySustainingMarginReserves MtLife toNPV US$m
Blackwater MineHard coking, semi-hard coking, PCI and thermal70%8.0$111$30$10$46350.020513,033
Maules Creek MinePremium low-ash high-energy thermal plus metallurgical75%7.0$91$17$10$35322.520532,090
Daunia MinePremium hard coking and PCI100%4.5$107$30$10$50110.020431,572
Narrabri Underground MineExport thermal78%3.5$83$15$10$45108.520491,271
Winchester South ProjectMetallurgical coal100%—————350.02053606
Gunnedah Open CutsExport thermal and semi-soft metallurgical100%3.0$102$17$10$2560.02042529
Vickery ProjectMetallurgical and premium thermal100%—————200.0——
Total25.9$100$10$419,102

Benchmark to realised price, 2026

Spot case · US$ per metric tonne.

MineBenchmarkIndexRealisedRealised %Quality / basis
Blackwater MinePLV HCC$271$19873%Modeled metallurgical reference price
Maules Creek MinegC NEWC$150$153103%6,200 kcal/kg · 102% of Newcastle reference
Daunia MinePLV HCC$271$19873%Modeled metallurgical reference price
Narrabri Underground MinegC NEWC$150$153103%Modeled thermal reference price
Gunnedah Open CutsgC NEWC$150$153103%Modeled thermal reference price
Company$208$17584%

Production

Spot case

Attributable production by mine

Spot case

AISC by mine

Life-of-mine average · excludes corporate G&A

7 covered assets

Attributable economics on the spot case.

Project NAV US$9,102m
01
Blackwater Australia · Production · 70% owned
→
Attr. NAVUS$3,033m
NAV share33.3%
AISC 151 US$/t
02
Maules Creek Australia · Production · 75% owned
→
Attr. NAVUS$2,090m
NAV share23%
AISC 117 US$/t
03
Daunia Australia · Production · 100% owned
→
Attr. NAVUS$1,572m
NAV share17.3%
AISC 147 US$/t
04
Narrabri Underground Australia · Production · 77.5% owned
→
Attr. NAVUS$1,271m
NAV share14%
AISC 106 US$/t
05
Winchester South Australia · PFS · 100% owned
→
Attr. NAVUS$606m
NAV share6.7%
AISC 172 US$/t
06
Gunnedah Open Cuts Australia · Production · 100% owned
→
Attr. NAVUS$529m
NAV share5.8%
AISC 126 US$/t
07
Vickery Australia · FS · 100% owned
→
Attr. NAV—
NAV share0%
AISC —