CHPP / saleable yield81%Saleable tonnes ÷ ROM feed
Realised coal price$153.41/tModeled pricing point
Site cash cost$101.72/tPer saleable tonne
Cash margin$35.12/tAfter royalties and modeled deductions
Risked NPV$529m100% ownership
Investment verdict
Operating open-cut complex (Tarrawonga and Vickery early mining) delivering flexible product blending and steady cash generation
B+
B+
Grade & continuity
Multiple seams producing high-quality thermal and semi-soft coking coal.
B+
Metallurgy
Processed via Gunnedah CHPP with flexible product blending to meet customer specs.
B+
Mining complexity
Conventional open pit mining; recently approved to 4.1 Mtpa ROM.
A
Infrastructure & power
Established private haul road and Gunnedah rail loadout facility.
A
Permitting status
Fully permitted operating consents in place.
A
Resource confidence
Long operating history with well-understood reserve geometry.
B
Geological upside
Synergies and equipment deployment with adjacent Vickery operations.
B+
Expansion optionality
Increased capacity up to 4.1 Mtpa approved for FY27.
Valuation snapshot
100% NAV retained
Unrisked NPV$529m
Project DCF before the published stage and execution-risk charge.
Risk charge−$0m
Value removed by the model's project-stage and execution-risk adjustment.
Risked NPV$529m
Selected project value after risk, before ownership attribution.
Effective discount rate7%
Time-value hurdle used for the project DCF after published adjustments.
NPV at first production$529m
Production-value anchor with pre-production timing removed; used by the FSV ladder.
Annual operating profile
Spot · risked · 100% of project
Saleable coal and CHPP yieldannual ROM-to-product conversion
Mt · %
Saleable-tonne economics2026E operating row and life-of-mine cost basis
US$/t
Realised price$153.41/t
Site cash cost$101.72/t
Cash cost incl. sustaining$125.54/t
Cash margin$35.12/t
ROM coal62.9 Mt
Saleable coal50.9 Mt
LOM saleable yield81%
Site cost / ROM t$82.4/t
A 100% yield indicates a schedule already expressed in saleable tonnes.
Revenue and cost stackcosts and capital aligned below zero
US$m
Capital recoveryannual and cumulative project cash flow
US$m
Timeline Built from the stored anchor years: construction start, first production, and closure (or first production plus reserve life where no closure year is published). The marker is the year the current valuation is struck from.
Construction
2010–2026
Production
2026–2038
20102014201820222026203020342038
Dashed line marks 2026, the year this valuation is struck from.
Resources and reserves
Effective 30 Jun 2026 · 100% basis
Ore reserves
Asset
Proven (Mt)
Probable (Mt)
Proven & probable (Mt)
Gunnedah Open Cuts
35.0
25.0
60.0
Mineral resources
Asset
Measured (Mt)
Indicated (Mt)
Measured & indicated (Mt)
Inferred (Mt)
Total (Mt)
Gunnedah Open Cuts
75.0
50.0
125
30.0
155
Coal tonnes are on the disclosed source basis; no equivalent conversion is applied.
Valuation framework Fair speculative value ladderProduction →
Two valuation lenses$529m production-value OV anchors the speculative
ladder; $529m stage-risked DCF is the selected modeled project value.
Speculative value by development stage
Current model stageProduction 100%–100%
certainty
Market-implied project value$4,280m Company market capitalization