Company coverage / TGA.JSE Valuation date 16 Oct 2026
TG

Thungela Resources Limited

TGA.JSE · South Africa · 6 operating models

Reference price US$8.44
Market cap US$1,070m
Realised US$115/t
Producer
Valuation case 2026-10-16
Market cap01
US$1,070m

US$8.4391 × 126.8m diluted shares

2026E FCF yield02
19.5%

Coverage average 4.4%

Company P / NAV Market cap ÷ equity NAV: project NPV less corporate G&A and non-debt claims, plus cash less debt, on today's shares.03
0.64×

Risked NAV · US$1,665m

Asset P / NAV 0.54× Enterprise value ÷ attributable project NPV. Excludes corporate G&A, cash, debt and financing, so it compares across peers.

Unrisked 0.54×

NAV / share04
US$13.13

Risked NAV / diluted share

Unrisked US$15.73 / share

2026E EV / EBITDA05
1.69×

Enterprise value US$704m

Accounting EBITDA US$417m

EV / reserve t06
US$2.4/t

294 Mt attributable saleable reserves

Model notes
Valuation & risk
Current share priceUS$8.44
Risked NAV / shareUS$13.13
Unrisked NAV / shareUS$15.73
Risk charge / shareUS$2.59
NAV retained after risk 83.5%
US$329m risk charge
Risked NAV US$1,665m Risk charge US$329m
Market-implied rate32.5%Spot EV reconciled to model NAV
Unrisked DCFUS$1,994mBase discount rate
Risked DCFUS$1,665mCountry + permitting in rate
Risk costUS$329m20.2% of unrisked NAV

Investment case

Spot case
01

Valuation gap

The market is pricing the company at 0.64× risked NAV, with +55.6% to the modeled per-share value.

US$13.13
02

Portfolio concentration

Zibulo Colliery is the largest modeled value driver at 34.9% of positive project NAV.

34.9%
03

Risk cost

Jurisdiction, permitting and project risk reduce unrisked value by US$329m before the equity bridge.

20.2%

Price versus modeled value

Market
US$8.44
US$0 US$38.41
Current share priceUS$8.44
Risked NAV / shareUS$13.13
Unrisked NAV / shareUS$15.73
Risk charge / share US$2.59

Production and sustaining FCF

Sustaining free cash flow after tax and production, both at the company's ownership share.

First positive2026
Peak modeledUS$227m
$0
US$208m
2026 17 Mt
US$219m
2027 17 Mt
US$227m
2028 17 Mt
US$198m
2029 15 Mt
US$172m
2030 13 Mt
US$177m
2031 13 Mt
US$186m
2032 13 Mt
US$106m
2033 9 Mt
US$107m
2034 9 Mt

17 Mt peak attributable production

19.5% 2026E FCF yield

US$365m net cash entering the model

Cash flow statement

Attributable to Thungela Resources Limited shareholders. Each mine is modeled at 100%, including royalties and taxes, then included at the company's ownership share, so minority and government interests are already excluded.

10 years Risked basis
Spot scenario
2026–2035
USD millions, except percentages and per-unit dataFY26202720282029203020312032203320342035
17.417.417.415.113.113.113.19.19.19.1
US$1,987mUS$1,987mUS$1,987mUS$1,745mUS$1,529mUS$1,529mUS$1,529mUS$981mUS$981mUS$981m
US$1,455mUS$1,455mUS$1,455mUS$1,273mUS$1,110mUS$1,110mUS$1,110mUS$752mUS$752mUS$752m
US$92mUS$92mUS$92mUS$86mUS$81mUS$81mUS$81mUS$25mUS$25mUS$25m
AISC (US$/t)
93.893.493.494.295.295.295.288.188.188.1
G&A
US$12mUS$12mUS$12mUS$12mUS$12mUS$12mUS$12mUS$12mUS$12mUS$12m
US$417mUS$417mUS$417mUS$363mUS$316mUS$316mUS$316mUS$182mUS$182mUS$182m
Depreciation & depletion
US$12mUS$27mUS$49mUS$52mUS$51mUS$71mUS$109mUS$23mUS$27mUS$32m
US$404mUS$389mUS$367mUS$311mUS$265mUS$244mUS$206mUS$158mUS$154mUS$149m
Interest expense
US$1mUS$0mUS$0mUS$0mUS$0mUS$0mUS$0mUS$0mUS$0mUS$0m
US$404mUS$389mUS$367mUS$311mUS$265mUS$244mUS$206mUS$158mUS$154mUS$149m
US$123mUS$118mUS$112mUS$97mUS$84mUS$78mUS$66mUS$52mUS$51mUS$50m
US$281mUS$271mUS$255mUS$214mUS$181mUS$167mUS$140mUS$106mUS$103mUS$100m
US$92mUS$86mUS$86mUS$78mUS$70mUS$70mUS$70mUS$35mUS$35mUS$35m
Growth capex
US$0mUS$0mUS$0mUS$0mUS$0mUS$0mUS$0mUS$0mUS$0mUS$0m
US$208mUS$219mUS$227mUS$198mUS$172mUS$177mUS$186mUS$106mUS$107mUS$109m
19.5%20.4%21.2%18.6%16.1%16.6%17.4%9.9%10%10.2%
US$87mUS$199mUS$187mUS$149mUS$118mUS$111mUS$107mUS$49mUS$44mUS$40m
Cash
US$458mUS$674mUS$901mUS$1,100mUS$1,272mUS$1,449mUS$1,635mUS$1,742mUS$1,849mUS$1,958m
EV
US$616mUS$397mUS$170m−US$28m−US$200m−US$378m−US$564m−US$670m−US$778m−US$887m
Yield denominators: market cap US$1,070m, EV = market cap less US$365m net cash. Asset level rows are model mine-plan values and may not sum exactly to the consolidated line. Tax shield rows are reference-only breakdowns already reflected in cash taxes, not additional cash inflows. Changes in receivables, inventory and payables are not separately modeled in this waterfall.
Spending details
G&A · annual US$m11.83
Exploration · annual US$m0
Of which drilling · annual US$m0
All-in drilling cost · US$/m—

All-in cost per metre needs a disclosed cost or matching spend and metres for the same program and period.

NAV by asset

US$1,300m total

Mines, 2026 attributable

Metric tonnes; US$/t. Cash cost includes rail and port where reported FOB.

MineProductOwnSaleable MtCash costRoyaltySustainingMarginReserves MtLife toNPV US$m
Zibulo CollieryRichards Bay export thermal (RB1/RB3 mix)100%4.5$82$3$5$19109.72040453
Annea CollieryRichards Bay export thermal100%2.7$82$3$4$2073.82045302
Ensham MineNewcastle-referenced export thermal100%4.1$88$14$9$2531.82032216
Mafube Colliery (50% JV with Exxaro)Richards Bay export thermal50%1.9$82$3$4$20100.22041194
Khwezela CollieryRichards Bay export thermal100%2.0$82$3$4$2018.3202981
Greenside CollieryRichards Bay export thermal100%2.2$82$3$4$2010.0202853
Total17.4$83$5$211,300

Benchmark to realised price, 2026

Spot case · US$ per metric tonne.

MineBenchmarkIndexRealisedRealised %Quality / basis
Zibulo CollieryAPI4 RB$128$10884%1H26 SA realised export price is the study anchor; market scenarios use API4 x 0.843.
Annea CollieryAPI4 RB$128$10884%1H26 SA realised export price is the study anchor; market scenarios use API4 x 0.843.
Ensham MinegC NEWC$150$13591%1H26 Ensham realised price is the study anchor; market scenarios use gC NEWC x 0.90 (long-run base; 1H26 0.867 is the downside).
Mafube Colliery (50% JV with Exxaro)API4 RB$128$10884%1H26 SA realised export price is the study anchor; market scenarios use API4 x 0.843.
Khwezela CollieryAPI4 RB$128$10884%1H26 SA realised export price is the study anchor; market scenarios use API4 x 0.843.
Greenside CollieryAPI4 RB$128$10884%1H26 SA realised export price is the study anchor; market scenarios use API4 x 0.843.
Company$133$11586%

Production

Spot case

Attributable production by mine

Spot case

AISC by mine

Life-of-mine average · excludes corporate G&A

6 covered assets

Attributable economics on the spot case.

Project NAV US$1,300m
01
Zibulo Colliery South Africa · Production · 100% owned
→
Attr. NAVUS$453m
NAV share34.9%
AISC 88 US$/t
02
Annea Colliery South Africa · Production · 100% owned
→
Attr. NAVUS$302m
NAV share23.2%
AISC 88 US$/t
03
Ensham Australia · Production · 100% owned
→
Attr. NAVUS$216m
NAV share16.6%
AISC 111 US$/t
04
Mafube Colliery (50% JV With Exxaro) South Africa · Production · 50% owned
→
Attr. NAVUS$194m
NAV share15%
AISC 88 US$/t
05
Khwezela Colliery South Africa · Production · 100% owned
→
Attr. NAVUS$81m
NAV share6.3%
AISC 88 US$/t
06
Greenside Colliery South Africa · Production · 100% owned
→
Attr. NAVUS$53m
NAV share4.1%
AISC 88 US$/t