Coverage/ Thungela Resources Limited/ Greenside Colliery
GR

Operating asset

Greenside Colliery

TGA.JSE Production South Africa underground 100% owned
Valuation case2026-10-16
2026E saleable coal2.23 Mtrichards bay export thermal coal · literal product tonnes
ROM / CHPP feed2.23 Mt0× strip ratio
CHPP / saleable yield100%Saleable tonnes ÷ ROM feed
Realised coal price$108.16/tModeled pricing point
Site cash cost$81.56/tPer saleable tonne
Cash margin$23.89/tAfter royalties and modeled deductions
Risked NPV$53m100% ownership

Investment verdict

Asset assessment not published

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Detailed assessment dimensions are not published for this asset.

Valuation snapshot

95.6% NAV retained
Unrisked NPV $56m

Project DCF before the published stage and execution-risk charge.

Risk charge −$2m

Value removed by the model's project-stage and execution-risk adjustment.

Risked NPV $53m

Selected project value after risk, before ownership attribution.

Effective discount rate 12%

Time-value hurdle used for the project DCF after published adjustments.

NPV at first production $53m

Production-value anchor with pre-production timing removed; used by the FSV ladder.

Ownership100%
Attributable NPV$53m
NAV / share$0.42

Annual operating profile

Spot · risked · 100% of project
Saleable coal and CHPP yieldannual ROM-to-product conversion
Mt · %
Saleable-tonne economics2026E operating row and life-of-mine cost basis
US$/t
Realised price$108.16/t
Site cash cost$81.56/t
Cash cost incl. sustaining$88.14/t
Cash margin$23.89/t
ROM coal6.7 Mt
Saleable coal6.7 Mt
LOM saleable yield100%
Site cost / ROM t$81.56/t

A 100% yield indicates a schedule already expressed in saleable tonnes.

Revenue and cost stackcosts and capital aligned below zero
US$m
Capital recoveryannual and cumulative project cash flow
US$m

Timeline Built from the stored anchor years: construction start, first production, and closure (or first production plus reserve life where no closure year is published). The marker is the year the current valuation is struck from.

Construction
1960–2026
Production
2026–2029
19601969197819871996200520142023

Dashed line marks 2026, the year this valuation is struck from.

Resources and reserves

Effective 31 Dec 2025 · 100% basis

Ore reserves

AssetProven & probable (Mt)
Greenside Colliery 10.0

Mineral resources

AssetMeasured (Mt)Indicated (Mt)Measured & indicated (Mt)
Greenside Colliery 11.5 4.00 15.5

Coal tonnes are on the disclosed source basis; no equivalent conversion is applied.

Valuation framework Fair speculative value ladder Production →
Two valuation lenses $53m production-value OV anchors the speculative ladder; $53m stage-risked DCF is the selected modeled project value.

Speculative value by development stage

Current model stage Production 100%–100% certainty
Market-implied project value $1,070m Company market capitalization
USD OV NPV$53mAt production value
Diluted126.8mCompany shares F.D.
Net interest100%Attributable ownership
Exchange rate1.0000USD framework
Project stage Certainty FSV range Attributable FSV USD / share
01 Grassroots
0.5%–1%
$0m – $1m
$0m – $1m
$0 – $0
02 Target Drilling
1%–2.5%
$1m – $1m
$1m – $1m
$0 – $0.01
03 Discovery Delineation
2.5%–5%
$1m – $3m
$1m – $3m
$0.01 – $0.02
04 Infill & Metallurgy
5%–10%
$3m – $5m
$3m – $5m
$0.02 – $0.04
05 PEA
10%–25%
$5m – $13m
$5m – $13m
$0.04 – $0.11
06 Prefeasibility
25%–50%
$13m – $27m
$13m – $27m
$0.11 – $0.21
07 Permitting & Feasibility
50%–75%
$27m – $40m
$27m – $40m
$0.21 – $0.32
08 Construction
75%–100%
$40m – $53m
$40m – $53m
$0.32 – $0.42
09 Production Current
100%
$53m
$53m
$0.42
Formula OV NPV × stage certainty × net interest ÷ diluted shares. Red marker = company market capitalization.