Company coverage / NHC.ASX Valuation date 16 Oct 2026
NH

New Hope Corporation Limited

NHC.AX · Australia · 2 operating models

Reference price A$5.19
Market cap US$3,111m
Realised US$122/t
Producer
Valuation case 2026-10-16
Market cap01
US$3,111m

US$3.6641 × 849m diluted shares

2026E FCF yield02
5.3%

Coverage average 4.4%

Company P / NAV Market cap ÷ equity NAV: project NPV less corporate G&A and non-debt claims, plus cash less debt, on today's shares.03
1.18×

Risked NAV · US$2,636m

Asset P / NAV 1.18× Enterprise value ÷ attributable project NPV. Excludes corporate G&A, cash, debt and financing, so it compares across peers.

Includes US$96m deduction for non-debt claims.

Unrisked 1.18×

NAV / share04
US$3.1

Risked NAV / diluted share

Unrisked US$3.1 / share

2026E EV / EBITDA05
5.05×

Enterprise value US$3,156m

Accounting EBITDA US$625m

EV / reserve t06
US$10.8/t

294 Mt attributable saleable reserves

Model notes
Valuation & risk
Current share priceUS$3.66
Risked NAV / shareUS$3.1
Unrisked NAV / shareUS$3.1
Risk charge / shareUS$0
NAV retained after risk 100%
US$0m risk charge
Risked NAV US$2,636m Risk charge US$0m
Market-implied rate3.5%Spot EV reconciled to model NAV
Unrisked DCFUS$2,636mBase discount rate
Risked DCFUS$2,636mCountry + permitting in rate
Risk costUS$0m0% of unrisked NAV

Investment case

Spot case
01

Valuation gap

The market is pricing the company at 1.18× risked NAV, with -15.3% to the modeled per-share value.

US$3.1
02

Portfolio concentration

Bengalla is the largest modeled value driver at 64% of positive project NAV.

64%
03

Risk cost

Jurisdiction, permitting and project risk reduce unrisked value by US$0m before the equity bridge.

0%

Price versus modeled value

Market
US$3.66
US$0 US$6.88
Current share priceUS$3.66
Risked NAV / shareUS$3.1
Unrisked NAV / shareUS$3.1
Risk charge / share US$0

Production and sustaining FCF

Sustaining free cash flow after tax and production, both at the company's ownership share.

First positive2026
Peak modeledUS$399m
$0
US$164m
2026 13 Mt
US$263m
2027 13 Mt
US$280m
2028 14 Mt
US$287m
2029 14 Mt
US$308m
2030 14 Mt
US$370m
2031 14 Mt
US$377m
2032 14 Mt
US$386m
2033 14 Mt
US$399m
2034 14 Mt

14 Mt peak attributable production

5.3% 2026E FCF yield

US$51m net cash entering the model

Cash flow statement

Attributable to New Hope Corporation Limited shareholders. Each mine is modeled at 100%, including royalties and taxes, then included at the company's ownership share, so minority and government interests are already excluded.

10 years Risked basis
Spot scenario
2026–2035
USD millions, except percentages and per-unit dataFY26202720282029203020312032203320342035
12.713.213.713.713.713.713.713.713.77.9
US$1,560mUS$1,620mUS$1,681mUS$1,681mUS$1,681mUS$1,681mUS$1,681mUS$1,681mUS$1,681mUS$955m
US$803mUS$841mUS$878mUS$878mUS$878mUS$878mUS$878mUS$878mUS$878mUS$541m
US$117mUS$117mUS$117mUS$117mUS$117mUS$117mUS$117mUS$117mUS$117mUS$38m
AISC (US$/t)
87.781.581.681.681.681.681.681.681.682.9
G&A
US$11mUS$11mUS$11mUS$11mUS$11mUS$11mUS$11mUS$11mUS$11mUS$11m
US$625mUS$648mUS$670mUS$670mUS$670mUS$670mUS$670mUS$670mUS$670mUS$360m
Depreciation & depletion
US$16mUS$30mUS$47mUS$65mUS$85mUS$110mUS$142mUS$185mUS$256mUS$163m
US$609mUS$617mUS$623mUS$605mUS$585mUS$560mUS$528mUS$485mUS$414mUS$198m
Interest expense
US$11mUS$9mUS$7mUS$4mUS$2mUS$0mUS$0mUS$0mUS$0mUS$0m
US$597mUS$608mUS$616mUS$601mUS$583mUS$560mUS$528mUS$485mUS$414mUS$198m
US$187mUS$190mUS$192mUS$186mUS$180mUS$173mUS$163mUS$150mUS$129mUS$64m
US$410mUS$418mUS$425mUS$415mUS$403mUS$387mUS$365mUS$335mUS$285mUS$134m
US$199mUS$123mUS$128mUS$128mUS$128mUS$128mUS$128mUS$128mUS$128mUS$73m
Growth capex
US$0mUS$0mUS$0mUS$0mUS$0mUS$0mUS$0mUS$0mUS$0mUS$0m
US$164mUS$263mUS$280mUS$287mUS$308mUS$370mUS$377mUS$386mUS$399mUS$244m
5.3%8.4%9%9.2%9.9%11.9%12.1%12.4%12.8%7.9%
US$68mUS$247mUS$246mUS$236mUS$236mUS$265mUS$252mUS$242mUS$233mUS$134m
Cash
US$412mUS$608mUS$822mUS$1,042mUS$1,297mUS$1,667mUS$2,044mUS$2,430mUS$2,829mUS$3,073m
EV
US$2,991mUS$2,728mUS$2,448mUS$2,160mUS$1,852mUS$1,482mUS$1,105mUS$719mUS$320mUS$76m
Yield denominators: market cap US$3,111m, EV = market cap less US$51m net cash plus US$96m non-debt claims. Asset level rows are model mine-plan values and may not sum exactly to the consolidated line. Tax shield rows are reference-only breakdowns already reflected in cash taxes, not additional cash inflows. Changes in receivables, inventory and payables are not separately modeled in this waterfall.
Spending details
G&A · annual US$m10.89
Exploration · annual US$m0
Of which drilling · annual US$m0
All-in drilling cost · US$/m—

All-in cost per metre needs a disclosed cost or matching spend and metres for the same program and period.

NAV by asset

US$2,682m total

Mines, 2026 attributable

Metric tonnes; US$/t. Cash cost includes rail and port where reported FOB.

MineProductOwnSaleable MtCash costRoyaltySustainingMarginReserves MtLife toNPV US$m
Bengalla MineExport thermal, low and high ash (47% low ash in FY26)80%8.7$57$13$9$43102.020351,716
New Acland MineExport thermal, mostly high ash (61% in Q4 FY26)100%4.0$75$0$29$16212.02038966
Total12.7$63$16$352,682

Benchmark to realised price, 2026

Spot case · US$ per metric tonne.

MineBenchmarkIndexRealisedRealised %Quality / basis
Bengalla MinegC NEWC$150$12382%Latest quarter export realisation relative to NEWC
New Acland MinegC NEWC$150$12080%Latest quarter export realisation relative to NEWC
Company$150$12282%

Production

Spot case

Attributable production by mine

Spot case

AISC by mine

Life-of-mine average · excludes corporate G&A

2 covered assets

Attributable economics on the spot case.

Project NAV US$2,682m
01
Bengalla Australia · Production · 80% owned
→
Attr. NAVUS$1,716m
NAV share64%
AISC 80 US$/t
02
New Acland Australia · Production · 100% owned
→
Attr. NAVUS$966m
NAV share36%
AISC 86 US$/t