CHPP / saleable yield95%Saleable tonnes ÷ ROM feed
Realised coal price$153.41/tModeled pricing point
Site cash cost$83.48/tPer saleable tonne
Cash margin$54.9/tAfter royalties and modeled deductions
Risked NPV$1,640m78% ownership
Investment verdict
Low-cost underground longwall operation with Stage 3 approval secured extending mine life to 2044+
A
B+
Grade & continuity
Thick Hoskissons seam with consistent thickness, transitioning to shallow Panel 205.
A
Metallurgy
High-yield thermal coal product with excellent calorific value and blending capability with Gunnedah open cuts.
B
Mining complexity
Underground longwall mining subject to periodic change-outs and geotechnical management in deeper ground.
A
Infrastructure & power
Direct rail loadout connected to Newcastle export corridor.
A
Permitting status
Stage 3 extension approval granted, securing southern mining areas and long-term tenure.
A
Resource confidence
Extensive underground exploration drilling and detailed geological model.
B+
Geological upside
Substantial 300-series panel resource inventory to the south.
B+
Expansion optionality
Optimised capital program ($262m) extending existing longwall life without requiring early replacement.
Valuation snapshot
100% NAV retained
Unrisked NPV$1,640m
Project DCF before the published stage and execution-risk charge.
Risk charge−$0m
Value removed by the model's project-stage and execution-risk adjustment.
Risked NPV$1,640m
Selected project value after risk, before ownership attribution.
Effective discount rate7%
Time-value hurdle used for the project DCF after published adjustments.
NPV at first production$912m
Production-value anchor with pre-production timing removed; used by the FSV ladder.
Annual operating profile
Spot · risked · 100% of project
Saleable coal and CHPP yieldannual ROM-to-product conversion
Mt · %
Saleable-tonne economics2026E operating row and life-of-mine cost basis
US$/t
Realised price$153.41/t
Site cash cost$83.48/t
Cash cost incl. sustaining$106.21/t
Cash margin$54.9/t
ROM coal112.8 Mt
Saleable coal107.2 Mt
LOM saleable yield95%
Site cost / ROM t$79.3/t
A 100% yield indicates a schedule already expressed in saleable tonnes.
Revenue and cost stackcosts and capital aligned below zero
US$m
Capital recoveryannual and cumulative project cash flow
US$m
Timeline Built from the stored anchor years: construction start, first production, and closure (or first production plus reserve life where no closure year is published). The marker is the year the current valuation is struck from.
Construction
2010–2026
Production
2026–2044
2010201520202025203020352040
Dashed line marks 2026, the year this valuation is struck from.
Resources and reserves
Effective 30 Jun 2026 · Attributable basis
Ore reserves
Asset
Proven (Mt)
Probable (Mt)
Proven & probable (Mt)
Narrabri Underground Mine
65.9
42.6
109
Mineral resources
Asset
Measured (Mt)
Indicated (Mt)
Measured & indicated (Mt)
Inferred (Mt)
Total (Mt)
Narrabri Underground Mine
140
93.0
233
85.3
318
Coal tonnes are on the disclosed source basis; no equivalent conversion is applied.
Valuation framework Fair speculative value ladderProduction →
Two valuation lenses$912m production-value OV anchors the speculative
ladder; $1,640m stage-risked DCF is the selected modeled project value.
Speculative value by development stage
Current model stageProduction 100%–100%
certainty
Market-implied project value$4,280m Company market capitalization