Coverage/ Whitehaven Coal Limited/ Winchester South
WI

Development asset

Winchester South

WHC.ASX Prefeasibility Australia open_pit 100% owned
Valuation case2026-10-16
2026E saleable coal0 Mtgold · literal product tonnes
ROM / CHPP feed0 Mt0× strip ratio
CHPP / saleable yield—Saleable tonnes ÷ ROM feed
Realised coal price$0/tModeled pricing point
Site cash cost—/tPer saleable tonne
Cash margin—/tAfter royalties and modeled deductions
Risked NPV$606m100% ownership

Investment verdict

Large-scale metallurgical coal development project offering significant operational and infrastructure synergies with adjacent Daunia

A
  • A
    Grade & continuity

    High-quality Rangal and Fort Cooper coal measures yielding premium metallurgical and thermal products.

  • A
    Metallurgy

    High washability yield for metallurgical coal products.

  • A
    Mining complexity

    Low strip ratio open-cut deposit suitable for dragline and truck/shovel mining.

  • A
    Infrastructure & power

    Adjacent to Daunia mine with direct access to existing rail corridors and port terminal allocations.

  • B+
    Permitting status

    Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) and approval process progressing.

  • A
    Resource confidence

    Over 1.1 billion tonnes of JORC compliant coal resources.

  • A
    Geological upside

    Substantial regional resource upside and seam extensions.

  • A
    Expansion optionality

    Synergy realization with Daunia fleet and infrastructure.

Valuation snapshot

66.5% NAV retained
Unrisked NPV $911m

Project DCF before the published stage and execution-risk charge.

Risk charge −$305m

Value removed by the model's project-stage and execution-risk adjustment.

Risked NPV $606m

Selected project value after risk, before ownership attribution.

Effective discount rate 9%

Time-value hurdle used for the project DCF after published adjustments.

NPV at first production $1,875m

Production-value anchor with pre-production timing removed; used by the FSV ladder.

Ownership100%
Attributable NPV$606m
NAV / share$0.77

Annual operating profile

Spot · risked · 100% of project
Saleable coal and CHPP yieldannual ROM-to-product conversion
Mt · %
Saleable-tonne economics2026E operating row and life-of-mine cost basis
US$/t
Realised price$0/t
Site cash cost$132.01/t
Cash cost incl. sustaining$172.49/t
Cash margin—/t
ROM coal404 Mt
Saleable coal240 Mt
LOM saleable yield59.4%
Site cost / ROM t$78.42/t

A 100% yield indicates a schedule already expressed in saleable tonnes.

Revenue and cost stackcosts and capital aligned below zero
US$m
Capital recoveryannual and cumulative project cash flow
US$m

Timeline Built from the stored anchor years: construction start, first production, and closure (or first production plus reserve life where no closure year is published). The marker is the year the current valuation is struck from.

Construction
2028–2030
Production
2030–2031
202620272028202920302031

Dashed line marks 2026, the year this valuation is struck from.

Resources and reserves

100% basis

Ore reserves

AssetProven (Mt)Probable (Mt)Proven & probable (Mt)
Winchester South Project 338 66.0 404

Mineral resources

AssetMeasured (Mt)Indicated (Mt)Measured & indicated (Mt)Inferred (Mt)Total (Mt)
Winchester South Project 490 370 860 240 1,100

Coal tonnes are on the disclosed source basis; no equivalent conversion is applied.

Valuation framework Fair speculative value ladder Prefeasibility →
Two valuation lenses $1,875m production-value OV anchors the speculative ladder; $606m stage-risked DCF is the selected modeled project value.

Speculative value by development stage

Current model stage Prefeasibility 25%–50% certainty
Market-implied project value $4,280m Company market capitalization
USD OV NPV$1,875mAt production value
Diluted788.3mCompany shares F.D.
Net interest100%Attributable ownership
Exchange rate1.0000USD framework
Project stage Certainty FSV range Attributable FSV USD / share
01 Grassroots
0.5%–1%
$9m – $19m
$9m – $19m
$0.01 – $0.02
02 Target Drilling
1%–2.5%
$19m – $47m
$19m – $47m
$0.02 – $0.06
03 Discovery Delineation
2.5%–5%
$47m – $94m
$47m – $94m
$0.06 – $0.12
04 Infill & Metallurgy
5%–10%
$94m – $187m
$94m – $187m
$0.12 – $0.24
05 PEA
10%–25%
$187m – $469m
$187m – $469m
$0.24 – $0.59
06 Prefeasibility Current
25%–50%
$469m – $937m
$469m – $937m
$0.59 – $1.19
07 Permitting & Feasibility
50%–75%
$937m – $1,406m
$937m – $1,406m
$1.19 – $1.78
08 Construction
75%–100%
$1,406m – $1,875m
$1,406m – $1,875m
$1.78 – $2.38
09 Production
100%
$1,875m
$1,875m
$2.38
Formula OV NPV × stage certainty × net interest ÷ diluted shares. Red marker = company market capitalization.