Coverage/ Whitehaven Coal Limited/ Blackwater
BL

Operating asset

Blackwater

WHC.ASX Production Australia open_pit 70% owned
Valuation case2026-10-16
2026E saleable coal11.4 Mtmetallurgical coal · literal product tonnes
ROM / CHPP feed13.9 Mt7.5× strip ratio
CHPP / saleable yield82%Saleable tonnes ÷ ROM feed
Realised coal price$197.58/tModeled pricing point
Site cash cost$111.26/tPer saleable tonne
Cash margin$56.21/tAfter royalties and modeled deductions
Risked NPV$4,333m70% ownership

Investment verdict

Tier-1 scale metallurgical and thermal coal open-cut operation with multi-decade reserve life and established rail/port infrastructure

A
  • A
    Grade & continuity

    Large-scale continuous coal seams in the Bowen Basin supporting ~13.9 Mt ROM and ~11.4 Mt managed sales.

  • B+
    Metallurgy

    Standard coal handling and preparation plant (CHPP) producing high-quality metallurgical and thermal coal products.

  • B+
    Mining complexity

    Conventional open cut dragline and truck/shovel stripping; active pre-strip inventory rebuilding.

  • A
    Infrastructure & power

    Fully established heavy-haul rail connections to Gladstone port terminals (R.G. Tanna and Barney Point).

  • A
    Permitting status

    Fully permitted operating mine with long-standing environmental authorities and social licences.

  • A
    Resource confidence

    Extensive drilling and decades of operating reconciliation backing proved and probable JORC reserves.

  • B+
    Geological upside

    Deep strike and down-dip extensions across extensive lease areas.

  • A
    Expansion optionality

    Fleet optimization and autonomous haulage opportunities yielding continuous productivity upside.

Valuation snapshot

100% NAV retained
Unrisked NPV $4,333m

Project DCF before the published stage and execution-risk charge.

Risk charge −$0m

Value removed by the model's project-stage and execution-risk adjustment.

Risked NPV $4,333m

Selected project value after risk, before ownership attribution.

Effective discount rate 7%

Time-value hurdle used for the project DCF after published adjustments.

NPV at first production $4,098m

Production-value anchor with pre-production timing removed; used by the FSV ladder.

Ownership70%
Attributable NPV$3,033m
NAV / share$3.85

Annual operating profile

Spot · risked · 100% of project
Saleable coal and CHPP yieldannual ROM-to-product conversion
Mt · %
Saleable-tonne economics2026E operating row and life-of-mine cost basis
US$/t
Realised price$197.58/t
Site cash cost$111.26/t
Cash cost incl. sustaining$151.25/t
Cash margin$56.21/t
ROM coal361.4 Mt
Saleable coal296.3 Mt
LOM saleable yield82%
Site cost / ROM t$91.23/t

A 100% yield indicates a schedule already expressed in saleable tonnes.

Revenue and cost stackcosts and capital aligned below zero
US$m
Capital recoveryannual and cumulative project cash flow
US$m

Timeline Built from the stored anchor years: construction start, first production, and closure (or first production plus reserve life where no closure year is published). The marker is the year the current valuation is struck from.

Construction
2024–2026
Production
2026–2051
2024202820322036204020442048

Dashed line marks 2026, the year this valuation is struck from.

Resources and reserves

Effective 30 Jun 2026 · Attributable basis

Ore reserves

AssetProven (Mt)Probable (Mt)Proven & probable (Mt)
Blackwater Mine 224 126 350

Mineral resources

AssetMeasured (Mt)Indicated (Mt)Measured & indicated (Mt)Inferred (Mt)Total (Mt)
Blackwater Mine 315 266 581 175 756

Coal tonnes are on the disclosed source basis; no equivalent conversion is applied.

Valuation framework Fair speculative value ladder Production →
Two valuation lenses $4,098m production-value OV anchors the speculative ladder; $4,333m stage-risked DCF is the selected modeled project value.

Speculative value by development stage

Current model stage Production 100%–100% certainty
Market-implied project value $4,280m Company market capitalization
USD OV NPV$4,098mAt production value
Diluted788.3mCompany shares F.D.
Net interest70%Attributable ownership
Exchange rate1.0000USD framework
Project stage Certainty FSV range Attributable FSV USD / share
01 Grassroots
0.5%–1%
$20m – $41m
$14m – $29m
$0.02 – $0.04
02 Target Drilling
1%–2.5%
$41m – $102m
$29m – $72m
$0.04 – $0.09
03 Discovery Delineation
2.5%–5%
$102m – $205m
$72m – $143m
$0.09 – $0.18
04 Infill & Metallurgy
5%–10%
$205m – $410m
$143m – $287m
$0.18 – $0.36
05 PEA
10%–25%
$410m – $1,024m
$287m – $717m
$0.36 – $0.91
06 Prefeasibility
25%–50%
$1,024m – $2,049m
$717m – $1,434m
$0.91 – $1.82
07 Permitting & Feasibility
50%–75%
$2,049m – $3,073m
$1,434m – $2,151m
$1.82 – $2.73
08 Construction
75%–100%
$3,073m – $4,098m
$2,151m – $2,868m
$2.73 – $3.64
09 Production Current
100%
$4,098m
$2,868m
$3.64
Formula OV NPV × stage certainty × net interest ÷ diluted shares. Red marker = company market capitalization.