Coverage/ Whitehaven Coal Limited/ Vickery
VI

Development asset

Vickery

WHC.ASX Permitting & Feasibility Australia open_pit 100% owned
Valuation case2026-10-02
2026E saleable coal0 Mtgold · literal product tonnes
ROM / CHPP feed0 Mt0× strip ratio
CHPP / saleable yield—Saleable tonnes ÷ ROM feed
Realised coal price$0/tModeled pricing point
Site cash cost—/tPer saleable tonne
Cash margin—/tAfter royalties and modeled deductions
Risked NPV$4,599m100% ownership

Investment verdict

Fully approved, shovel-ready large-scale open-cut development project with high-quality metallurgical and thermal coal reserves

A
  • A
    Grade & continuity

    Thick high-quality coal sequence with substantial metallurgical and high-CV thermal coal reserves.

  • A
    Metallurgy

    Modern standalone CHPP design with high recovery and low product ash.

  • B+
    Mining complexity

    Open-cut truck and shovel operation; initial early mining already active.

  • A
    Infrastructure & power

    Approved rail spur connecting directly to Main Northern Railway.

  • A
    Permitting status

    State and Federal environmental approvals fully secured for full-scale development (up to ~10 Mtpa).

  • A
    Resource confidence

    Extensively drilled and documented in comprehensive feasibility studies.

  • A
    Geological upside

    Substantial regional exploration footprint and resource expansion potential.

  • A
    Expansion optionality

    Customer and supplier partner interest in co-funding full-scale development.

Valuation snapshot

90.4% NAV retained
Unrisked NPV $5,085m

Project DCF before the published stage and execution-risk charge.

Risk charge −$487m

Value removed by the model's project-stage and execution-risk adjustment.

Risked NPV $4,599m

Selected project value after risk, before ownership attribution.

Effective discount rate 8%

Time-value hurdle used for the project DCF after published adjustments.

NPV at first production $5,433m

Production-value anchor with pre-production timing removed; used by the FSV ladder.

Ownership100%
Attributable NPV$4,599m
NAV / share$5.83

Annual operating profile

Spot · risked · 100% of project
Saleable coal and CHPP yieldannual ROM-to-product conversion
Mt · %
Saleable-tonne economics2026E operating row and life-of-mine cost basis
US$/t
Realised price$0/t
Site cash cost$86.37/t
Cash cost incl. sustaining$111.22/t
Cash margin—/t
ROM coal207 Mt
Saleable coal165.6 Mt
LOM saleable yield80%
Site cost / ROM t$69.1/t

A 100% yield indicates a schedule already expressed in saleable tonnes.

Revenue and cost stackcosts and capital aligned below zero
US$m
Capital recoveryannual and cumulative project cash flow
US$m

Timeline Built from the stored anchor years: construction start, first production, and closure (or first production plus reserve life where no closure year is published). The marker is the year the current valuation is struck from.

Construction
2026–2028
Production
2028–2029
2026202720282029

Dashed line marks 2026, the year this valuation is struck from.

Resources and reserves

Effective 30 Jun 2026 · 100% basis

Ore reserves

AssetProven (Mt)Probable (Mt)Proven & probable (Mt)
Vickery Project 130 70.0 200

Mineral resources

AssetMeasured (Mt)Indicated (Mt)Measured & indicated (Mt)Inferred (Mt)Total (Mt)
Vickery Project 250 180 430 80.0 510

Coal tonnes are on the disclosed source basis; no equivalent conversion is applied.

Valuation framework Fair speculative value ladder Permitting & Feasibility →
Two valuation lenses $5,433m production-value OV anchors the speculative ladder; $4,599m stage-risked DCF is the selected modeled project value.

Speculative value by development stage

Current model stage Permitting & Feasibility 50%–75% certainty
Market-implied project value $4,177m Company market capitalization
USD OV NPV$5,433mAt production value
Diluted788.3mCompany shares F.D.
Net interest100%Attributable ownership
Exchange rate1.0000USD framework
Project stage Certainty FSV range Attributable FSV USD / share
01 Grassroots
0.5%–1%
$27m – $54m
$27m – $54m
$0.03 – $0.07
02 Target Drilling
1%–2.5%
$54m – $136m
$54m – $136m
$0.07 – $0.17
03 Discovery Delineation
2.5%–5%
$136m – $272m
$136m – $272m
$0.17 – $0.34
04 Infill & Metallurgy
5%–10%
$272m – $543m
$272m – $543m
$0.34 – $0.69
05 PEA
10%–25%
$543m – $1,358m
$543m – $1,358m
$0.69 – $1.72
06 Prefeasibility
25%–50%
$1,358m – $2,716m
$1,358m – $2,716m
$1.72 – $3.45
07 Permitting & Feasibility Current
50%–75%
$2,716m – $4,074m
$2,716m – $4,074m
$3.45 – $5.17
08 Construction
75%–100%
$4,074m – $5,433m
$4,074m – $5,433m
$5.17 – $6.89
09 Production
100%
$5,433m
$5,433m
$6.89
Formula OV NPV × stage certainty × net interest ÷ diluted shares. Red marker = company market capitalization.