CHPP / saleable yield70%Saleable tonnes ÷ ROM feed
Realised coal price$175.35/tModeled pricing point
Site cash cost$141.67/tPer saleable tonne
Cash margin$10.23/tAfter royalties and modeled deductions
Risked NPV$-2m100% ownership
Investment verdict
Established but high-cost metallurgical-coal complex whose continuity depends on Isaac Downs Extension approval and funding
C
B
Grade & continuity
The complex produces metallurgical coal, but the current pack does not disclose a quantitative product-grade, ash, sulfur, phosphorus or coke-quality specification.
B
Metallurgy
The operating CHPP achieved a 58.0% 1H26 saleable-to-ROM yield, materially below Stanmore's other mines; domain-level washability is not disclosed.
C
Mining complexity
Open-cut dragline and truck-and-shovel mining is established, but the 8.9 bcm/t strip ratio and US$124/t 1H26 FOB cost make this the portfolio's highest-cost current operation.
A
Infrastructure & power
Existing mine and processing infrastructure plus the rail route to Dalrymple Bay Coal Terminal materially de-risk market access.
C
Permitting status
The current mine is operating, but Isaac Downs Extension remains on the approvals pathway and is excluded from the base schedule pending approval and FID.
B+
Resource confidence
The complex reports 49Mt of marketable reserve and 182Mt measured and indicated resources, but the base model credits only the current operation through 2028.
A
Geological upside
The broader Isaac Plains, Isaac Downs, extension and adjacent development footprint provides substantial geological inventory and integration potential.
B+
Expansion optionality
Isaac Downs Extension could bridge the current operation from early 2029, but its capital, schedule and approved reserve must be established before it enters base NAV.
Valuation snapshot
100% NAV retained
Unrisked NPV$-2m
Project DCF before the published stage and execution-risk charge.
Risk charge−$0m
Value removed by the model's project-stage and execution-risk adjustment.
Risked NPV$-2m
Selected project value after risk, before ownership attribution.
Effective discount rate7%
Time-value hurdle used for the project DCF after published adjustments.
NPV at first production$-2m
Production-value anchor with pre-production timing removed; used by the FSV ladder.
Annual operating profile
Spot · risked · 100% of project
Saleable coal and CHPP yieldannual ROM-to-product conversion
Mt · %
Saleable-tonne economics2026E operating row and life-of-mine cost basis
US$/t
Realised price$175.35/t
Site cash cost$141.67/t
Cash cost incl. sustaining$174.28/t
Cash margin$10.23/t
ROM coal5.1 Mt
Saleable coal3.6 Mt
LOM saleable yield70%
Site cost / ROM t$99.17/t
A 100% yield indicates a schedule already expressed in saleable tonnes.
Revenue and cost stackcosts and capital aligned below zero
US$m
Capital recoveryannual and cumulative project cash flow
US$m
Timeline Built from the stored anchor years: construction start, first production, and closure (or first production plus reserve life where no closure year is published). The marker is the year the current valuation is struck from.
Construction
2006–2026
Production
2026–2029
20062009201220152018202120242027
Dashed line marks 2026, the year this valuation is struck from.
Resources and reserves
Effective 31 Dec 2025 · Attributable basis
Ore reserves
Asset
Proven & probable (Mt)
Isaac Plains Complex
70.0
Mineral resources
Asset
Measured (Mt)
Indicated (Mt)
Measured & indicated (Mt)
Inferred (Mt)
Total (Mt)
Isaac Plains Complex
126
56.0
182
44.0
226
Coal tonnes are on the disclosed source basis; no equivalent conversion is applied.
Valuation framework Fair speculative value ladderProduction →
Two valuation lenses$-2m production-value OV anchors the speculative
ladder; $-2m stage-risked DCF is the selected modeled project value.
Speculative value by development stage
Current model stageProduction 100%–100%
certainty
Market-implied project value$1,690m Company market capitalization
USD OV NPV—At production value
Diluted901.4mCompany shares F.D.
Net interest100%Attributable ownership
Exchange rate1.0000USD framework
The selected model does not have a positive production-value NPV, so a speculative-value range
would be misleading.