CHPP / saleable yield100%Saleable tonnes ÷ ROM feed
Realised coal price$58/tModeled pricing point
Site cash cost$39.75/tPer saleable tonne
Cash margin$18.25/tAfter royalties and modeled deductions
Risked NPV$2,972m100% ownership
Investment verdict
A vast, low-cost Pittsburgh Seam longwall complex with two-rail export optionality
A
A
Grade & continuity
529.0M saleable reserve tons in a thick, laterally continuous Pittsburgh Seam support roughly two decades at current output.
A
Metallurgy
The 8,200-raw-tph Central Preparation Plant is a mature, conventional coal-washing operation with decades of operating history.
B+
Mining complexity
Three simultaneous longwall mines diversify face risk, but underground fire, water, geology and development timing remain material execution hazards.
A
Infrastructure & power
Established conveyors, the largest US preparation plant, dual CSX/Norfolk Southern access and owned export-terminal interests provide exceptional logistics.
B+
Permitting status
The operating complex holds its core permits and routinely secures acreage amendments; the long tail still requires normal permit maintenance and additions.
A
Resource confidence
The 2025 10-K updates proven and probable S-K 1300 reserves after a detailed independent 2024 technical assessment.
B
Geological upside
No resources excluding reserves are reported, so geological upside is deliberately not credited beyond the 529.0M-ton inventory.
B+
Expansion optionality
Installed capacity reaches 28.5M tons annually and product blending supports thermal/met crossover, but the base plan already operates near mature-complex scale.
Valuation snapshot
100% NAV retained
Unrisked NPV$2,972m
Project DCF before the published stage and execution-risk charge.
Risk charge−$0m
Value removed by the model's project-stage and execution-risk adjustment.
Risked NPV$2,972m
Selected project value after risk, before ownership attribution.
Effective discount rate7%
Time-value hurdle used for the project DCF after published adjustments.
NPV at first production$2,972m
Production-value anchor with pre-production timing removed; used by the FSV ladder.
Annual operating profile
Spot · risked · 100% of project
Saleable coal and CHPP yieldannual ROM-to-product conversion
Mt · %
Saleable-tonne economics2026E operating row and life-of-mine cost basis
US$/t
Realised price$58/t
Site cash cost$39.75/t
Cash cost incl. sustaining$45.75/t
Cash margin$18.25/t
ROM coal529 Mt
Saleable coal529 Mt
LOM saleable yield100%
Site cost / ROM t$39.75/t
A 100% yield indicates a schedule already expressed in saleable tonnes.
Revenue and cost stackcosts and capital aligned below zero
US$m
Capital recoveryannual and cumulative project cash flow
US$m
Timeline Built from the stored anchor years: construction start, first production, and closure (or first production plus reserve life where no closure year is published). The marker is the year the current valuation is struck from.
Construction
1984–2026
Production
2026–2046
19841992200020082016202420322040
Dashed line marks 2026, the year this valuation is struck from.
Resources and reserves
Effective 31 Dec 2025 · Attributable basis
Ore reserves
Asset
Proven (Mt)
Probable (Mt)
Proven & probable (Mt)
Pennsylvania Mining Complex
350
179
529
Coal tonnes are on the disclosed source basis; no equivalent conversion is applied.
Valuation framework Fair speculative value ladderProduction →
Two valuation lenses$2,972m production-value OV anchors the speculative
ladder; $2,972m stage-risked DCF is the selected modeled project value.
Speculative value by development stage
Current model stageProduction 100%–100%
certainty
Market-implied project value$4,508m Company market capitalization