Coverage/ Core Natural Resources, Inc./ Leer Complex
LE

Operating asset

Leer Complex

CNR Production USA underground 100% owned
Valuation case2026-10-19
2026E saleable coal6.81 Mtmetallurgical coal · literal product tonnes
ROM / CHPP feed6.81 Mt0× strip ratio
CHPP / saleable yield100%Saleable tonnes ÷ ROM feed
Realised coal price$140.32/tModeled pricing point
Site cash cost$80.74/tPer saleable tonne
Cash margin$59.58/tAfter royalties and modeled deductions
Risked NPV$3,309m100% ownership

Investment verdict

A premium metallurgical longwall franchise with a disclosed multi-decade succession plan

A
  • A
    Grade & continuity

    170.2M clean reserve tons and 308.4M measured-plus-indicated resource tons define high-quality Lower Kittanning metallurgical coal continuity.

  • A
    Metallurgy

    Leer and Leer South use proven preparation plants and conventional metallurgical-coal washing with established product specifications.

  • B
    Mining complexity

    Three-mine succession reduces depletion risk, but longwall transfers, Leer West development and the recent Leer South combustion event demonstrate underground complexity.

  • B+
    Infrastructure & power

    Established rail and East Coast terminal access support export markets; Leer West still requires staged mine-development capital before it becomes the successor operation.

  • B+
    Permitting status

    Active operations are permitted and bonded, while Leer West's long-dated plan requires future permit execution and land-control conversion.

  • A
    Resource confidence

    The amended February 2026 S-K 1300 report publishes reserve/resource tables plus complete 2026-2063 production, cost and capital schedules.

  • B+
    Geological upside

    Resources materially exceed current reserves and provide conversion potential, though only reserve-backed and explicitly identified future-control tons enter the economic schedule.

  • A
    Expansion optionality

    Leer West provides an engineered successor from the mid-2030s and sustains complex production through 2063 if development and market assumptions hold.

Valuation snapshot

100% NAV retained
Unrisked NPV $3,309m

Project DCF before the published stage and execution-risk charge.

Risk charge −$0m

Value removed by the model's project-stage and execution-risk adjustment.

Risked NPV $3,309m

Selected project value after risk, before ownership attribution.

Effective discount rate 7%

Time-value hurdle used for the project DCF after published adjustments.

NPV at first production $1,987m

Production-value anchor with pre-production timing removed; used by the FSV ladder.

Ownership100%
Attributable NPV$3,309m
NAV / share$66.32

Annual operating profile

Spot · risked · 100% of project
Saleable coal and CHPP yieldannual ROM-to-product conversion
Mt · %
Saleable-tonne economics2026E operating row and life-of-mine cost basis
US$/t
Realised price$140.32/t
Site cash cost$72.35/t
Cash cost incl. sustaining$83.4/t
Cash margin$59.58/t
ROM coal176.5 Mt
Saleable coal176.5 Mt
LOM saleable yield100%
Site cost / ROM t$72.35/t

A 100% yield indicates a schedule already expressed in saleable tonnes.

Revenue and cost stackcosts and capital aligned below zero
US$m
Capital recoveryannual and cumulative project cash flow
US$m

Timeline Built from the stored anchor years: construction start, first production, and closure (or first production plus reserve life where no closure year is published). The marker is the year the current valuation is struck from.

Construction
2011–2026
Production
2026–2064
20112018202520322039204620532060

Dashed line marks 2026, the year this valuation is struck from.

Resources and reserves

Effective 31 Dec 2025 · Attributable basis

Ore reserves

AssetProven (Mt)Probable (Mt)Proven & probable (Mt)
Leer Complex 141 29.3 170

Mineral resources

AssetMeasured (Mt)Indicated (Mt)Measured & indicated (Mt)
Leer Complex 254 54.2 308

Coal tonnes are on the disclosed source basis; no equivalent conversion is applied.

Valuation framework Fair speculative value ladder Production →
Two valuation lenses $1,987m production-value OV anchors the speculative ladder; $3,309m stage-risked DCF is the selected modeled project value.

Speculative value by development stage

Current model stage Production 100%–100% certainty
Market-implied project value $4,508m Company market capitalization
USD OV NPV$1,987mAt production value
Diluted49.9mCompany shares F.D.
Net interest100%Attributable ownership
Exchange rate1.0000USD framework
Project stage Certainty FSV range Attributable FSV USD / share
01 Grassroots
0.5%–1%
$10m – $20m
$10m – $20m
$0.2 – $0.4
02 Target Drilling
1%–2.5%
$20m – $50m
$20m – $50m
$0.4 – $1
03 Discovery Delineation
2.5%–5%
$50m – $99m
$50m – $99m
$1 – $1.99
04 Infill & Metallurgy
5%–10%
$99m – $199m
$99m – $199m
$1.99 – $3.98
05 PEA
10%–25%
$199m – $497m
$199m – $497m
$3.98 – $9.95
06 Prefeasibility
25%–50%
$497m – $993m
$497m – $993m
$9.95 – $19.91
07 Permitting & Feasibility
50%–75%
$993m – $1,490m
$993m – $1,490m
$19.91 – $29.86
08 Construction
75%–100%
$1,490m – $1,987m
$1,490m – $1,987m
$29.86 – $39.82
09 Production Current
100%
$1,987m
$1,987m
$39.82
Formula OV NPV × stage certainty × net interest ÷ diluted shares. Red marker = company market capitalization.