CHPP / saleable yield100%Saleable tonnes ÷ ROM feed
Realised coal price$14.27/tModeled pricing point
Site cash cost$13.73/tPer saleable tonne
Cash margin$0.54/tAfter royalties and modeled deductions
Risked NPV$-233m100% ownership
Investment verdict
One of the world's most productive surface mines, but with structurally thin PRB margins
B+
B+
Grade & continuity
331.5M reserve tons lie in a broad, predictable Wyodak-Anderson coal zone, though value per ton is low and price-sensitive.
A
Metallurgy
Coal is mined and conveyed directly through mature material-handling systems with no complex metallurgical recovery circuit.
B+
Mining complexity
Dragline and truck-shovel methods are conventional at scale, but multiple pits, highway/rail relocation and long haul distances create sequencing demands.
A
Infrastructure & power
Decades of established draglines, conveyors and multiple rail loadouts support very high annual volumes.
B+
Permitting status
The operation is mature and permitted, but its large reclamation footprint and bonding requirements remain material through closure.
A
Resource confidence
The February 2026 S-K 1300 report discloses 331.5M reserve tons and a complete 2026-2038 saleable production schedule.
B
Geological upside
205M measured-plus-indicated tons exclusive of reserves provide inventory, but conversion depends on low-margin economics and customer demand.
C
Expansion optionality
The mine can flex volume, yet its reserve plan declines sharply after 2030 and the TRS base case earns only US$1.20/t EBITDA.
Valuation snapshot
100% NAV retained
Unrisked NPV$-233m
Project DCF before the published stage and execution-risk charge.
Risk charge−$0m
Value removed by the model's project-stage and execution-risk adjustment.
Risked NPV$-233m
Selected project value after risk, before ownership attribution.
Effective discount rate7%
Time-value hurdle used for the project DCF after published adjustments.
NPV at first production$-233m
Production-value anchor with pre-production timing removed; used by the FSV ladder.
Annual operating profile
Spot · risked · 100% of project
Saleable coal and CHPP yieldannual ROM-to-product conversion
Mt · %
Saleable-tonne economics2026E operating row and life-of-mine cost basis
US$/t
Realised price$14.27/t
Site cash cost$14.43/t
Cash cost incl. sustaining$14.68/t
Cash margin$0.54/t
ROM coal331.5 Mt
Saleable coal331.5 Mt
LOM saleable yield100%
Site cost / ROM t$14.43/t
A 100% yield indicates a schedule already expressed in saleable tonnes.
Revenue and cost stackcosts and capital aligned below zero
US$m
Capital recoveryannual and cumulative project cash flow
US$m
Timeline Built from the stored anchor years: construction start, first production, and closure (or first production plus reserve life where no closure year is published). The marker is the year the current valuation is struck from.
Construction
1977–2026
Production
2026–2039
19771985199320012009201720252033
Dashed line marks 2026, the year this valuation is struck from.
Resources and reserves
Effective 31 Dec 2025 · Attributable basis
Ore reserves
Asset
Proven (Mt)
Probable (Mt)
Proven & probable (Mt)
Black Thunder Mine
330
2.00
332
Mineral resources
Asset
Measured (Mt)
Indicated (Mt)
Measured & indicated (Mt)
Black Thunder Mine
200
5.00
205
Coal tonnes are on the disclosed source basis; no equivalent conversion is applied.
Valuation framework Fair speculative value ladderProduction →
Two valuation lenses$-233m production-value OV anchors the speculative
ladder; $-233m stage-risked DCF is the selected modeled project value.
Speculative value by development stage
Current model stageProduction 100%–100%
certainty
Market-implied project value$4,508m Company market capitalization
USD OV NPV—At production value
Diluted49.9mCompany shares F.D.
Net interest100%Attributable ownership
Exchange rate1.0000USD framework
The selected model does not have a positive production-value NPV, so a speculative-value range
would be misleading.