CHPP / saleable yield74.3%Saleable tonnes ÷ ROM feed
Realised coal price$186.79/tModeled pricing point
Site cash cost$64.38/tPer saleable tonne
Cash margin$95.53/tAfter royalties and modeled deductions
Risked NPV$1,444m100% ownership
Investment verdict
Long-reserve-life ultra-low-vol PCI mine with established Gladstone access but weak current yield disclosure
B+
B+
Grade & continuity
Yarrabee's PCI product is differentiated by ultra-low volatile matter; the current reserve carries 10.5% ash and 10% moisture, with historical phosphorus around 0.096%.
B
Metallurgy
The 1H26 saleable-to-ROM yield was 73.3%; detailed washability curves are not disclosed.
B
Mining complexity
Open-cut truck-and-shovel mining is conventional, but current strip ratio and mine-level cost are unavailable.
B+
Infrastructure & power
The Blackwater rail system provides an established path to Gladstone export infrastructure, subject to rail and terminal commitments.
B+
Permitting status
The mine is operating under established Queensland tenure; closure cash timing is available only at group level.
B+
Resource confidence
70Mt recoverable and 52Mt marketable reserve support roughly twenty-five modeled years at current portfolio-scaled output.
B+
Geological upside
275Mt of gross resource provides additional conversion inventory.
B+
Expansion optionality
Long reserve life and PCI exposure provide optionality, but mine-level cost, strip and product mix are needed to underwrite it fully.
Valuation snapshot
100% NAV retained
Unrisked NPV$1,444m
Project DCF before the published stage and execution-risk charge.
Risk charge−$0m
Value removed by the model's project-stage and execution-risk adjustment.
Risked NPV$1,444m
Selected project value after risk, before ownership attribution.
Effective discount rate7%
Time-value hurdle used for the project DCF after published adjustments.
NPV at first production$1,444m
Production-value anchor with pre-production timing removed; used by the FSV ladder.
Annual operating profile
Spot · risked · 100% of project
Saleable coal and CHPP yieldannual ROM-to-product conversion
Mt · %
Saleable-tonne economics2026E operating row and life-of-mine cost basis
US$/t
Realised price$186.79/t
Site cash cost$64.38/t
Cash cost incl. sustaining$103.58/t
Cash margin$95.53/t
ROM coal70 Mt
Saleable coal52 Mt
LOM saleable yield74.3%
Site cost / ROM t$47.83/t
A 100% yield indicates a schedule already expressed in saleable tonnes.
Revenue and cost stackcosts and capital aligned below zero
US$m
Capital recoveryannual and cumulative project cash flow
US$m
Timeline Built from the stored anchor years: construction start, first production, and closure (or first production plus reserve life where no closure year is published). The marker is the year the current valuation is struck from.
Construction
1982–2026
Production
2026–2051
19821991200020092018202720362045
Dashed line marks 2026, the year this valuation is struck from.
Resources and reserves
Effective 31 Dec 2025 · 100% basis
Ore reserves
Asset
Proven & probable (Mt)
Yarrabee Coal Mine
70.0
Mineral resources
Asset
Measured (Mt)
Indicated (Mt)
Measured & indicated (Mt)
Inferred (Mt)
Total (Mt)
Yarrabee Coal Mine
55.0
140
195
80.0
275
Coal tonnes are on the disclosed source basis; no equivalent conversion is applied.
Valuation framework Fair speculative value ladderProduction →
Two valuation lenses$1,444m production-value OV anchors the speculative
ladder; $1,444m stage-risked DCF is the selected modeled project value.
Speculative value by development stage
Current model stageProduction 100%–100%
certainty
Market-implied project value$5,396m Company market capitalization