CHPP / saleable yield68.4%Saleable tonnes ÷ ROM feed
Realised coal price$120.32/tModeled pricing point
Site cash cost$64.38/tPer saleable tonne
Cash margin$42.94/tAfter royalties and modeled deductions
Risked NPV$1,885m84% ownership
Investment verdict
Long-life Hunter Valley open cut with diversified thermal/semi-soft products and proven Newcastle logistics
B+
B+
Grade & continuity
Marketable reserves average about 13.35% ash and 10% moisture across thermal and semi-soft products; numeric CV and coke-quality specifications are not disclosed.
B
Metallurgy
The 1H26 saleable-to-ROM yield was 71.1%. Product-specific washability and recovery curves are unavailable.
B+
Mining complexity
Conventional open-cut truck-and-shovel mining is established, though no current strip ratio is disclosed.
A
Infrastructure & power
Onsite processing and loadout connect to the Hunter Valley rail network and Newcastle terminals, with Yancoal holding material port stakes.
B+
Permitting status
The complex is operating with established approvals; mine-level closure and bonding schedules are not separated from group balances.
A
Resource confidence
212Mt recoverable and 145Mt marketable reserve support about fourteen modeled years at the current portfolio-scaled rate.
A
Geological upside
A 1.3Bt gross inclusive resource creates substantial reserve-conversion optionality.
B+
Expansion optionality
Large infrastructure and resources support extensions, but value depends on strip, product-mix and approval economics not disclosed mine by mine.
Valuation snapshot
100% NAV retained
Unrisked NPV$1,885m
Project DCF before the published stage and execution-risk charge.
Risk charge−$0m
Value removed by the model's project-stage and execution-risk adjustment.
Risked NPV$1,885m
Selected project value after risk, before ownership attribution.
Effective discount rate7%
Time-value hurdle used for the project DCF after published adjustments.
NPV at first production$1,885m
Production-value anchor with pre-production timing removed; used by the FSV ladder.
Annual operating profile
Spot · risked · 100% of project
Saleable coal and CHPP yieldannual ROM-to-product conversion
Mt · %
Saleable-tonne economics2026E operating row and life-of-mine cost basis
US$/t
Realised price$120.32/t
Site cash cost$64.38/t
Cash cost incl. sustaining$89.7/t
Cash margin$42.94/t
ROM coal212 Mt
Saleable coal145 Mt
LOM saleable yield68.4%
Site cost / ROM t$44.04/t
A 100% yield indicates a schedule already expressed in saleable tonnes.
Revenue and cost stackcosts and capital aligned below zero
US$m
Capital recoveryannual and cumulative project cash flow
US$m
Timeline Built from the stored anchor years: construction start, first production, and closure (or first production plus reserve life where no closure year is published). The marker is the year the current valuation is struck from.
Construction
1981–2026
Production
2026–2040
19811989199720052013202120292037
Dashed line marks 2026, the year this valuation is struck from.
Resources and reserves
Effective 31 Dec 2025 · 100% basis
Ore reserves
Asset
Proven & probable (Mt)
Mount Thorley Warkworth
212
Mineral resources
Asset
Measured (Mt)
Indicated (Mt)
Measured & indicated (Mt)
Inferred (Mt)
Total (Mt)
Mount Thorley Warkworth
840
220
1,060
240
1,300
Coal tonnes are on the disclosed source basis; no equivalent conversion is applied.
Valuation framework Fair speculative value ladderProduction →
Two valuation lenses$1,885m production-value OV anchors the speculative
ladder; $1,885m stage-risked DCF is the selected modeled project value.
Speculative value by development stage
Current model stageProduction 100%–100%
certainty
Market-implied project value$5,396m Company market capitalization