CHPP / saleable yield50%Saleable tonnes ÷ ROM feed
Realised coal price$181.44/tModeled pricing point
Site cash cost$64.38/tPer saleable tonne
Cash margin$99.28/tAfter royalties and modeled deductions
Risked NPV$452m100% ownership
Investment verdict
Compact underground semi-soft operation with low reserve ash but a short, low-yield reserve case
B
B+
Grade & continuity
The RUMEx marketable reserve is reported at 9.5% ash and 8.5% moisture, suitable for semi-soft/thermal markets; sulfur and coke-quality metrics are not disclosed.
C
Metallurgy
The 1H26 saleable-to-ROM yield was only 47.1%, the weakest of the controlled portfolio.
B
Mining complexity
Longwall mining is established but exposed to underground geology, development continuity and face-move execution.
B+
Infrastructure & power
Existing preparation and Hunter Valley rail access provide a proven route to Newcastle.
B
Permitting status
The current mine is operating, but the broader lease/resource pathway and mine-level closure schedule are not disclosed.
B
Resource confidence
The 20Mt recoverable and 10Mt marketable RUMEx reserve supports only about seven modeled years.
B+
Geological upside
A further 190Mt gross Ashton/RUMEx resource remains visible but is excluded from base economics.
B
Expansion optionality
Resource conversion could extend infrastructure use, but low yield and absent mine-level economics make that optionality speculative.
Valuation snapshot
100% NAV retained
Unrisked NPV$452m
Project DCF before the published stage and execution-risk charge.
Risk charge−$0m
Value removed by the model's project-stage and execution-risk adjustment.
Risked NPV$452m
Selected project value after risk, before ownership attribution.
Effective discount rate7%
Time-value hurdle used for the project DCF after published adjustments.
NPV at first production$452m
Production-value anchor with pre-production timing removed; used by the FSV ladder.
Annual operating profile
Spot · risked · 100% of project
Saleable coal and CHPP yieldannual ROM-to-product conversion
Mt · %
Saleable-tonne economics2026E operating row and life-of-mine cost basis
US$/t
Realised price$181.44/t
Site cash cost$64.38/t
Cash cost incl. sustaining$94.48/t
Cash margin$99.28/t
ROM coal20 Mt
Saleable coal10 Mt
LOM saleable yield50%
Site cost / ROM t$32.19/t
A 100% yield indicates a schedule already expressed in saleable tonnes.
Revenue and cost stackcosts and capital aligned below zero
US$m
Capital recoveryannual and cumulative project cash flow
US$m
Timeline Built from the stored anchor years: construction start, first production, and closure (or first production plus reserve life where no closure year is published). The marker is the year the current valuation is struck from.
Construction
2004–2026
Production
2026–2033
20042008201220162020202420282032
Dashed line marks 2026, the year this valuation is struck from.
Resources and reserves
Effective 31 Dec 2025 · 100% basis
Ore reserves
Asset
Proven & probable (Mt)
Ashton Coal Mine
20.0
Mineral resources
Asset
Measured (Mt)
Indicated (Mt)
Measured & indicated (Mt)
Inferred (Mt)
Total (Mt)
Ashton Coal Mine
75.0
75.0
150
40.0
190
Coal tonnes are on the disclosed source basis; no equivalent conversion is applied.
Valuation framework Fair speculative value ladderProduction →
Two valuation lenses$452m production-value OV anchors the speculative
ladder; $452m stage-risked DCF is the selected modeled project value.
Speculative value by development stage
Current model stageProduction 100%–100%
certainty
Market-implied project value$5,396m Company market capitalization