CHPP / saleable yield73.8%Saleable tonnes ÷ ROM feed
Realised coal price$120.32/tModeled pricing point
Site cash cost$64.38/tPer saleable tonne
Cash margin$42.94/tAfter royalties and modeled deductions
Risked NPV$2,917m51% ownership
Investment verdict
Massive thermal/semi-soft inventory whose economic value is gated by continuation approvals
B+
B+
Grade & continuity
Marketable reserve quality is 12.9% ash and 10% moisture across thermal and semi-soft products, but mine-level product splits and numeric coke-quality specs are not disclosed.
B+
Metallurgy
The 1H26 saleable-to-ROM yield was 80.4% across established preparation infrastructure.
B+
Mining complexity
Large-scale truck-and-shovel mining is proven, while current strip ratios are not disclosed.
A
Infrastructure & power
Multiple onsite CHPP and rail loadouts provide established access to Newcastle export terminals.
C
Permitting status
HVO North is approved through 2026 and South through 2030; the proposed 2045/2042 continuation still requires NSW and federal approvals.
A
Resource confidence
752Mt recoverable and 555Mt marketable reserve provide a very long physical runway, subject to regulatory conversion into an approved plan.
A
Geological upside
A 3.73Bt gross resource is exceptional geological inventory.
B+
Expansion optionality
The continuation proposes no increase in approved annual rates and can use existing infrastructure, but the model assigns no post-2026 base value until approvals are secured.
Valuation snapshot
100% NAV retained
Unrisked NPV$2,917m
Project DCF before the published stage and execution-risk charge.
Risk charge−$0m
Value removed by the model's project-stage and execution-risk adjustment.
Risked NPV$2,917m
Selected project value after risk, before ownership attribution.
Effective discount rate7%
Time-value hurdle used for the project DCF after published adjustments.
NPV at first production$2,917m
Production-value anchor with pre-production timing removed; used by the FSV ladder.
Annual operating profile
Spot · risked · 100% of project
Saleable coal and CHPP yieldannual ROM-to-product conversion
Mt · %
Saleable-tonne economics2026E operating row and life-of-mine cost basis
US$/t
Realised price$120.32/t
Site cash cost$64.38/t
Cash cost incl. sustaining$89.7/t
Cash margin$42.94/t
ROM coal330.3 Mt
Saleable coal243.8 Mt
LOM saleable yield73.8%
Site cost / ROM t$47.52/t
A 100% yield indicates a schedule already expressed in saleable tonnes.
Revenue and cost stackcosts and capital aligned below zero
US$m
Capital recoveryannual and cumulative project cash flow
US$m
Timeline Built from the stored anchor years: construction start, first production, and closure (or first production plus reserve life where no closure year is published). The marker is the year the current valuation is struck from.
Construction
1949–2026
Production
2026–2043
19491961197319851997200920212033
Dashed line marks 2026, the year this valuation is struck from.
Resources and reserves
Effective 31 Dec 2025 · 100% basis
Ore reserves
Asset
Proven & probable (Mt)
Hunter Valley Operations
752
Mineral resources
Asset
Measured (Mt)
Indicated (Mt)
Measured & indicated (Mt)
Inferred (Mt)
Total (Mt)
Hunter Valley Operations
630
1,400
2,030
1,700
3,730
Coal tonnes are on the disclosed source basis; no equivalent conversion is applied.
Valuation framework Fair speculative value ladderProduction →
Two valuation lenses$2,917m production-value OV anchors the speculative
ladder; $2,917m stage-risked DCF is the selected modeled project value.
Speculative value by development stage
Current model stageProduction 100%–100%
certainty
Market-implied project value$5,396m Company market capitalization