CHPP / saleable yield84.9%Saleable tonnes ÷ ROM feed
Realised coal price$122.65/tModeled pricing point
Site cash cost$64.38/tPer saleable tonne
Cash margin$45.34/tAfter royalties and modeled deductions
Risked NPV$2,318m99% ownership
Investment verdict
Large, high-yield thermal complex with ample resources, established Newcastle access and a high-ash product discount
B+
B
Grade & continuity
The reserve product averages about 22.8% ash and 9% moisture, making API5-style quality discounting central; mine-specific CV, sulfur and HGI are not disclosed in the current pack.
B+
Metallurgy
Open-cut and underground operations delivered a 91.6% 1H26 saleable-to-ROM yield, the strongest in Yancoal's controlled portfolio.
B+
Mining complexity
Three open-cut areas and UG4 provide method diversification, but the current strip ratio and underground productivity stack are not disclosed.
A
Infrastructure & power
Established CHPP, mine rail loadout and Ulan/Hunter Valley rail access connect the complex to Newcastle export infrastructure.
B+
Permitting status
Current project approvals run to 31 December 2038. Group-level rehabilitation and surety balances are visible, but mine-level cash timing is not.
B+
Resource confidence
The complex reports 166Mt recoverable and 141Mt marketable reserve, supporting roughly eight years at the modeled high run rate.
A
Geological upside
855Mt of measured, indicated and inferred resource offers substantial reserve-conversion potential beyond the modeled reserve.
B+
Expansion optionality
Approved OC4 and underground areas support continuity, while price realization depends on managing ash and API5 relativity.
Valuation snapshot
100% NAV retained
Unrisked NPV$2,318m
Project DCF before the published stage and execution-risk charge.
Risk charge−$0m
Value removed by the model's project-stage and execution-risk adjustment.
Risked NPV$2,318m
Selected project value after risk, before ownership attribution.
Effective discount rate7%
Time-value hurdle used for the project DCF after published adjustments.
NPV at first production$2,318m
Production-value anchor with pre-production timing removed; used by the FSV ladder.
Annual operating profile
Spot · risked · 100% of project
Saleable coal and CHPP yieldannual ROM-to-product conversion
Mt · %
Saleable-tonne economics2026E operating row and life-of-mine cost basis
US$/t
Realised price$122.65/t
Site cash cost$64.38/t
Cash cost incl. sustaining$89.63/t
Cash margin$45.34/t
ROM coal166 Mt
Saleable coal141 Mt
LOM saleable yield84.9%
Site cost / ROM t$54.69/t
A 100% yield indicates a schedule already expressed in saleable tonnes.
Revenue and cost stackcosts and capital aligned below zero
US$m
Capital recoveryannual and cumulative project cash flow
US$m
Timeline Built from the stored anchor years: construction start, first production, and closure (or first production plus reserve life where no closure year is published). The marker is the year the current valuation is struck from.
Construction
2010–2026
Production
2026–2034
201020132016201920222025202820312034
Dashed line marks 2026, the year this valuation is struck from.
Resources and reserves
Effective 31 Dec 2025 · 100% basis
Ore reserves
Asset
Proven & probable (Mt)
Moolarben Coal Complex
166
Mineral resources
Asset
Measured (Mt)
Indicated (Mt)
Measured & indicated (Mt)
Inferred (Mt)
Total (Mt)
Moolarben Coal Complex
550
155
705
150
855
Coal tonnes are on the disclosed source basis; no equivalent conversion is applied.
Valuation framework Fair speculative value ladderProduction →
Two valuation lenses$2,318m production-value OV anchors the speculative
ladder; $2,318m stage-risked DCF is the selected modeled project value.
Speculative value by development stage
Current model stageProduction 100%–100%
certainty
Market-implied project value$5,396m Company market capitalization