CHPP / saleable yield75.9%Saleable tonnes ÷ ROM feed
Realised coal price$199.5/tModeled pricing point
Site cash cost$103.28/tPer saleable tonne
Cash margin$65.53/tAfter royalties and modeled deductions
Risked NPV$2,109m80% ownership
Investment verdict
Long-life underground premium hard coking coal mine acquired 1 Oct 2026; cost and sustaining capex set the value
A
A
Grade & continuity
About 80% of output is low-ash (6.5%), high-fluidity premium HCC, with about 20% high-CV thermal. Blended realisation has been 61-78% of PLV HCC.
B+
Metallurgy
The 10.5Mtpa CHPP achieved a 75% saleable yield in 2025; the reserve yield is 76%.
B
Mining complexity
Longwall mining is proven but gassy; the 2024 frictional ignition and 400-series conditions lifted 2025 FOB cost to A$147/t.
A
Infrastructure & power
The mine has contracted Blackwater rail and RG Tanna port capacity (7.8Mtpa).
A
Permitting status
The mine operates under established Queensland tenure; Mitsui holds 20% as JV partner.
A
Resource confidence
164Mt marketable and 216Mt recoverable reserves underpin a 25-year life of mine.
A
Geological upside
406Mt of resources, 95% of it Measured or Indicated, leave room for extensions.
B+
Expansion optionality
Value depends on unit-cost recovery in the 500 series and on sustaining capex easing from the A$175M/yr historical average.
Valuation snapshot
100% NAV retained
Unrisked NPV$2,109m
Project DCF before the published stage and execution-risk charge.
Risk charge−$0m
Value removed by the model's project-stage and execution-risk adjustment.
Risked NPV$2,109m
Selected project value after risk, before ownership attribution.
Effective discount rate7%
Time-value hurdle used for the project DCF after published adjustments.
NPV at first production$2,109m
Production-value anchor with pre-production timing removed; used by the FSV ladder.
Annual operating profile
Spot · risked · 100% of project
Saleable coal and CHPP yieldannual ROM-to-product conversion
Mt · %
Saleable-tonne economics2026E operating row and life-of-mine cost basis
US$/t
Realised price$199.5/t
Site cash cost$103.28/t
Cash cost incl. sustaining$154.46/t
Cash margin$65.53/t
ROM coal194.3 Mt
Saleable coal147.6 Mt
LOM saleable yield75.9%
Site cost / ROM t$78.42/t
A 100% yield indicates a schedule already expressed in saleable tonnes.
Revenue and cost stackcosts and capital aligned below zero
US$m
Capital recoveryannual and cumulative project cash flow
US$m
Timeline Built from the stored anchor years: construction start, first production, and closure (or first production plus reserve life where no closure year is published). The marker is the year the current valuation is struck from.
Construction
1992–2026
Production
2026–2051
19922000200820162024203220402048
Dashed line marks 2026, the year this valuation is struck from.
Resources and reserves
Effective 1 Sept 2025 · 100% basis
Ore reserves
Asset
Proven & probable (Mt)
Kestrel Coal Mine
216
Mineral resources
Asset
Measured (Mt)
Indicated (Mt)
Measured & indicated (Mt)
Inferred (Mt)
Total (Mt)
Kestrel Coal Mine
105
281
386
20.0
406
Coal tonnes are on the disclosed source basis; no equivalent conversion is applied.
Valuation framework Fair speculative value ladderProduction →
Two valuation lenses$2,109m production-value OV anchors the speculative
ladder; $2,109m stage-risked DCF is the selected modeled project value.
Speculative value by development stage
Current model stageProduction 100%–100%
certainty
Market-implied project value$5,396m Company market capitalization