Company coverage / MSA.TO Valuation date 13 Oct 2026 Excel overview
MS

Mineros S.A.

MSA.TO · Colombia · 4 operating models

Reference price C$8.36
Market cap US$1,811m
Model gold US$4,162/oz
Producer
Valuation case 2026-10-13
Market cap01
US$1,811m

US$6.1864 × 292.8m diluted shares

2026E FCF yield02
9.6%

Coverage average —

Company P / NAV Market cap ÷ equity NAV: project NPV less corporate G&A and non-debt claims, plus cash less debt, on today's shares.03
0.54×

Risked NAV · US$3,338m

Asset P / NAV 0.53× Enterprise value ÷ attributable project NPV. Excludes corporate G&A, cash, debt and financing, so it compares across peers.

Unrisked 0.31×

NAV / share04
US$11.4

Risked NAV / diluted share

Unrisked US$19.75 / share

2026E EV / EBITDA05
4.85×

Enterprise value US$1,701m

Accounting EBITDA US$351m

EV / Resource06
US$225/oz

Coverage producer average —

7.6m attributable GEO

Model notes
Valuation & risk
Current share priceUS$6.19
Risked NAV / shareUS$11.4
Unrisked NAV / shareUS$19.75
Risk charge / shareUS$8.35
NAV retained after risk 57.7%
US$2,444m risk charge
Risked NAV US$3,338m Risk charge US$2,444m
Market-implied rate—Spot EV reconciled to model NAV
Unrisked DCFUS$5,782mBase discount rate
Risked DCFUS$3,338mCountry + permitting in rate
Risk costUS$2,444m43.1% of unrisked NAV

Investment case

Spot case
01

Valuation gap

The market is pricing the company at 0.54× risked NAV, with +84.3% to the modeled per-share value.

US$11.4
02

Portfolio concentration

Mineros Hemco is the largest modeled value driver at 35.3% of positive project NAV.

35.3%
03

Risk cost

Jurisdiction, permitting and project risk reduce unrisked value by US$2,444m before the equity bridge.

43.1%

Price versus modeled value

Market
US$6.19
US$0 US$21.35
Current share priceUS$6.19
Risked NAV / shareUS$11.4
Unrisked NAV / shareUS$19.75
Risk charge / share US$8.35

Production and sustaining FCF

Sustaining free cash flow after tax and production, both at the company's ownership share.

First positive2026
Peak modeledUS$978m
$0
US$173m
2026 179 koz GEO
US$288m
2027 241 koz GEO
US$305m
2028 251 koz GEO
US$335m
2029 253 koz GEO
US$785m
2030 437 koz GEO
US$936m
2031 526 koz GEO
US$971m
2032 555 koz GEO
US$978m
2033 566 koz GEO
US$757m
2034 423 koz GEO

566 koz GEO peak attributable production

9.6% 2026E FCF yield

US$110m net cash entering the model

Cash flow statement

Attributable to Mineros S.A. shareholders. Each mine is modeled at 100%, including royalties and taxes, then included at the company's ownership share, so minority and government interests are already excluded.

10 years Risked basis
Spot scenario
2026–2035
USD millions, except percentages and per-unit dataFY26202720282029203020312032203320342035
178.9241.1250.9253.3437526.3554.5566.4423.4390.6
US$733mUS$988mUS$1,028mUS$1,037mUS$1,800mUS$2,170mUS$2,290mUS$2,338mUS$1,749mUS$1,615m
US$326mUS$405mUS$420mUS$416mUS$571mUS$655mUS$687mUS$701mUS$444mUS$427m
US$32mUS$43mUS$45mUS$46mUS$83mUS$103mUS$110mUS$114mUS$95mUS$89m
AISC (US$/AuEq oz)
2,065.91,902.21,899.61,865.21,642.71,562.31,552.61,5511,405.61,465
G&A
US$23mUS$23mUS$23mUS$23mUS$23mUS$23mUS$23mUS$23mUS$23mUS$23m
US$351mUS$517mUS$539mUS$553mUS$1,122mUS$1,389mUS$1,469mUS$1,500mUS$1,187mUS$1,076m
Depreciation & depletion
US$2mUS$6mUS$10mUS$14mUS$72mUS$111mUS$137mUS$156mUS$143mUS$154m
US$349mUS$511mUS$529mUS$539mUS$1,050mUS$1,277mUS$1,333mUS$1,344mUS$1,044mUS$922m
Interest expense
US$4mUS$3mUS$1mUS$0mUS$0mUS$0mUS$0mUS$0mUS$0mUS$0m
US$344mUS$508mUS$528mUS$539mUS$1,050mUS$1,277mUS$1,333mUS$1,344mUS$1,044mUS$922m
US$128mUS$182mUS$188mUS$191mUS$364mUS$443mUS$462mUS$468mUS$371mUS$331m
US$216mUS$327mUS$340mUS$347mUS$687mUS$835mUS$871mUS$877mUS$673mUS$590m
US$27mUS$27mUS$27mUS$27mUS$80mUS$80mUS$80mUS$80mUS$72mUS$72m
US$0mUS$556mUS$496mUS$496mUS$0mUS$0mUS$0mUS$0mUS$0mUS$0m
US$173mUS$288mUS$305mUS$335mUS$785mUS$936mUS$971mUS$978mUS$757mUS$675m
9.6%15.9%16.8%18.5%43.4%51.7%53.6%54%41.8%37.3%
US$72mUS$263mUS$252mUS$251mUS$497mUS$520mUS$473mUS$425mUS$275mUS$212m
Cash
US$320mUS$34m−US$176m−US$337mUS$449mUS$1,385mUS$2,356mUS$3,334mUS$4,091mUS$4,766m
EV
US$1,528mUS$1,796mUS$1,987mUS$2,148mUS$1,362mUS$427m−US$544m−US$1,523m−US$2,280m−US$2,955m
Yield denominators: market cap US$1,811m, EV = market cap less US$110m net cash. Asset level rows are model mine-plan values and may not sum exactly to the consolidated line. Tax shield rows are reference-only breakdowns already reflected in cash taxes, not additional cash inflows. Changes in receivables, inventory and payables are not separately modeled in this waterfall.
Spending details
G&A · annual US$m23.27
Exploration · annual US$m16
Of which drilling · annual US$m0
All-in drilling cost · US$/m—

All-in cost per metre needs a disclosed cost or matching spend and metres for the same program and period.

NAV by asset

US$3,228m total

LOM NSR contribution

US$29,624m LOM

Annual cash flow

10y · PV, FCF and PV/share
Current modeled PV US$3,228m
Diluted shares 292.8m
Current PV / share $11.02

Production

Spot case

Attributable production by mine

Spot case

Non-by-product AISC by mine

Life-of-mine average · excludes corporate G&A

4 covered assets

Attributable economics on the spot case.

Project NAV US$3,228m
01
Mineros Hemco Nicaragua · Production · 100% owned
→
Attr. NAVUS$1,139m
NAV share35.3%
Non-by-product AISC 1,881 US$/GEO
02
Mineros La Colosa Colombia · Infill & Metallurgy · 100% owned
→
Attr. NAVUS$910m
NAV share28.2%
Non-by-product AISC 1,227 US$/GEO
03
Mineros Nechi Colombia · Production · 100% owned
→
Attr. NAVUS$808m
NAV share25%
Non-by-product AISC 2,156 US$/GEO
04
Mineros Porvenir Nicaragua · PFS · 100% owned
→
Attr. NAVUS$370m
NAV share11.5%
Non-by-product AISC 1,484 US$/GEO